Ola a todos os que me conhecem ou nao.
Tal como perceberam pelo titulo encontro-me no Kosovo a trabalhar.
Faco parte dos UNV, ou seja, United Nations Volunteers e estarei por ca pelo menos ate ao final de Junho, tudo dependera da data que ira ser definida como o fim da UNMIK (United Nations Mission in Kosovo).
Como devem calcular, existem aspectos do meu trabalho pratico sobre os quais nao posso falar. No entanto, e a razao pela qual estou a escrever-vos no nosso blog, e para dizer que apesar de estar um pouco mais longe que o costume, continuo a par das actualidades (viva o satelite e a internet), e, sempre que possivel, tentarei actualizar o blog. Peco a vossa compreensao para o facto que apenas ao fim de semana consigo ter acesso ao blog.
Continuem a ler e a participar,
e ate breve.
Ana Margarida Santos
sábado, dezembro 30, 2006
1 December 2006, N°40
Deteriorated Situations
Azerbaijan
Authorities shut down biggest independent broadcaster, ANS, and evicted an opposition party and 3 media outlets from their offices 24 November. Government opponents said move aimed at silencing dissent. Police broke up demonstration and arrested 12 activists demanding end to official pressure on media 16 November. Former senior presidential administration official Akif Muradverdiyev, arrested before November 2005 elections, sentenced to 6 years for attempt to topple gov’t, embezzlement and abuse of power.
§ “Attacks on Media Hurt Conflict Resolution”, Crisis Group media release, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “Authorities intensify pressure on independent media”, RFE/RL, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ For most recent Crisis Group report, see Europe Briefing N°40, Azerbaijan’s 2005 Elections: Lost Opportunity, 21 Nov. 2005.
Bolivia
President Evo Morales’s reforms met increased opposition, notably in Santa Cruz and eastern provinces. Despite opposition pledges to boycott discussion of agrarian reform bill, Morales’s MAS party steamrolled bill through senate, while 6 of 9 regional governors cut relations with Morales, and thousands marched 21 November in protest organised by civic groups and agro-businesses in Santa Cruz. Morales spoke of popular “revolt” and threatened disbanding of Senate to push through reforms, accusing opposition of injuring Bolivian democracy. MAS party also forced through controversial rules of procedure for Constituent Assembly after 3-month standoff, allowing constitutional changes by simple majority, although final document will require two-thirds’ vote.
§ “Bolivia enacts broad land-reform bill”, LA Times, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Evo Morales acusa a la oposición de impulsar un golpe a la democracia“, El País, 23 Nov. 2006.
§ “Morales opts for a pragmatic Bolivia”, Financial Times, 16 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N°18, Bolivia’s Rocky Road to Reforms, 3 July 2006.
Burundi
September ceasefire between government and FNL rebels held, but implementation of agreement increasingly divisive. Law granting temporary immunity for rebel signatories adopted but FNL refused to join Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism while some rebels remain political prisoners. Government set up commissions to determine those entitled to demobilisation benefits but without FNL input - contrary to agreement. South African contingent of UN peacekeepers to stay on as first part of AU deployment to avoid security vacuum after UN departure mid-December. Pressure on media increased as 3 leading journalists arrested on questionable grounds.
§ “Huge challenges in solving land crisis”, IRIN, 23 Nov. 2006.
Central African Republic
Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) rebels intent on toppling President François Bozizé took town of Birao 3 November, near border with Darfur and continued towards Bria 600 km from capital Bangui. Government later retook Birao with help of French troops attacked by UFDR. 45,000 fled fighting to refugee camps in Chad. Central African Economic and Monetary Community responded positively to request for help from Bangui and pledged support.
§ “French army clash with CAR rebels”, BBC, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Troops, raiders prey on Central African villagers”, AlertNet, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Central African Republic gets help to fight rebels”, AFP, 18 Nov. 2006.
Chad
Violence in east increased dramatically, with state of emergency declared 13 November. Gunmen killed 220 villagers in east; over 60 villages attacked in month. MSF aid worker also killed and over 3,000 IDPs reported missing following incident near Koloy 100km northeast of Goz Beida 16/17 November. Sudanese-backed rebels briefly captured key eastern town of Abeche 25 November. Government forces retook it following day, but rebels claimed to be 200km from N’djamena and closing. UN aid agencies evacuated non-essential staff and set up HQ in Cameroon after Abeche supplies looted. Security concerns prevented UN fact-finding team from visiting eastern Chad to consider options for deployment of monitoring mission or peacekeeping force.
§ “African leaders to discuss plans to end worsening Darfur, Chad conflict”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Arab civilians also targeted by militias”, Human Rights Watch, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “Villagers say Chad fighting killed at least 220: UN team”, AFP, 9 Nov. 2006.
Colombia
FARC violence escalated as series of deadly attacks continued. Mortar attack on police in Tierradentro 1 November killed at least 17, including 3 civilians. Heavy fighting with army forces reported 21 November in Caqueta killed 14. FARC militias launched series of attacks in Cali slums. President Uribe faced growing scandal as investigations grew into links between paramilitary groups and politicians allied to him. Supreme Court charged Senators Alvaro Garcia and Jairo Merlano and Congressman Eric Morris with funding right-wing paramilitaries in Sucre, and 60 current or former members of Congress and politicians under investigation for signing agreement with ex-paramilitary chiefs in 2001 to push for peace deal.
§ “Colombia’s Uribe, facing crisis, threatens ‘paras’”, AlertNet, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Thugs and politics”, Economist, 16 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Briefing N°11, Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia’s Uribe, 20 Oct. 2006.
Côte d’Ivoire
Situation potentially explosive as relations between PM Banny and President Gbagbo deteriorated. Security forces under Gbagbo control took to streets of Abidjan 28 November and demonstrations against Gbagbo’s reinstating government officials suspended over September’s deadly toxic waste scandal erupted 30 November. UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1721 1 November backing AU call to prolong transition for further 12 months. Resolution notably allows Banny to legislate independently of president and parliament, and to exert “necessary authority” over armed forces; Gbagbo refused to implement clauses contrary to constitution. Clashes between residents of Yopougon suburb and pro-government Patriot Grouping for Peace militia 3 November killed 4, while UN official briefly abducted 6 November by pro-Gbagbo militia in western town of Duekoue.
§ “Anti-Gbagbo demonstrations erupt”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Ivorian Premier vows to pursue divisive peace plan”, Reuters, 8 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°40, Côte d’Ivoire: Stepping Up the Pressure, 7 Sept. 2006.
Fiji
Coup tensions escalated as rifts between government and army deepened. Chief of armed forces Frank Bainimarama demanded resignation of PM Laisenia Qarase over controversial measures including preferential land rights for ethnic Fijians and amnesty for those implicated in 2000 coup, some of whom are ministers in current government. Government threatened to invite intervention from Pacific Island Forum nations, while Bainimarama said would begin “clean-up campaign” 1 December if demands not met. New Zealand brokered talks between Bainimarama and Qarase in Wellington 29 November in last-ditch effort to prevent military coup. Australia acting PM said would consider intervention. 1 December deadline passed peacefully but Bainimarama set new 4 December deadline as army planned military exercises around capital.
§ “Fiji coup deadline extended”, Radio NZ, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Fiji army sets new demand deadline”, Fiji Times, 22 Nov. 2006.
§ “NZ seeks meeting to scold Fiji chief”, Sydney Morning Herald, 21 Nov. 2006.
India (non-Kashmir)
Violence escalated in Assam, raising fears of new offensive by ULFA separatist rebels. Assam capital Guwahati hit by series of bombings 5 and 23 November killing 16; ULFA also suspected of train bombing in neighbouring West Bengal state 21 November that killed 12. Delhi announced deployment of 2000 extra troops to region. At least 3 killed in late month violence by “low-caste” Hindus in Maharashtra state prompted by desecration of statue of revered constitution framer B.R. Ambedkar in Kanpur.
§ “Caste protests grip Indian state”, BBC, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “India steps up security after deadly train blast”, AlertNet, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “More troops for India’s north-east”, BBC, 9 Nov. 2006.
Iraq
Sectarian violence rose to worst levels since U.S.-led 2003 invasion. 230 killed in 23 November bomb blasts in Baghdad’s Shiite Sadr City and retaliatory attacks on Sunni mosques 24 November. Spike in violence followed 14 November kidnapping raid by Shiite militia on Sunni-run Ministry of Higher Education and retaliatory attacks on Shiite-run Health Ministry. Moqtada al-Sadr’s Shiite group announced their temporary withdrawal from government in protest at PM Maliki’s meeting with U.S. President Bush in Jordan 30 November. Bush expressed support for Maliki and rejected rumours of U.S. gradual withdrawal. U.S. Defence Sec. Rumsfeld resigned following Republican defeat in mid-term elections; policy shift expected after report by bipartisan Iraq Study Group, due 6 December. Pentagon review of options reportedly favours short-term increase in troops with subsequent reduction coupled with long-term concentration on training and advising. Former President Saddam Hussein received death sentence for crimes against humanity; to appeal verdict. Agreement on restoring diplomatic ties with Syria, suspended for 20 years, announced 21 November.
§ “‘He’s the right guy’ - Bush defends embattled Maliki”, Guardian, 1 Dec. 2006.
§ “Waiting for Baker”, Economist, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Carnage rises in Iraq as Shiites retaliate”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Nov. 2006.
§ For most recent Crisis Group report, see Middle East Report N°56, Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk, 18 July 2006.
Lebanon
Political killing and Shiite resignations increased polarisation and brought government close to collapse. Pierre Gemayel, Phalange politician and industry minister, became fifth anti-Syrian Lebanese politician to be killed in 2 years 21 November. Syria denied involvement. Mass funeral rally held 23 November and 2-day national strike 24/25 November. Ruling pro-Western March 14 coalition increasingly embattled after 6 Shiite cabinet members, including 2 Hizbollah, 3 Amal, 1 pro-Lahoud, resigned after coalition insisted on formal approval of UN tribunal on February 2005 Hariri killing. Removal of 2 more cabinet members would make two-thirds quorum impossible. Tribunal approved by cabinet 25 November but President Lahoud refused to give final approval without Shiite vote and called cabinet unconstitutional. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated intention to bring down Siniora government unless national unity formula restored. Military on alert as Nasrallah called for mass “sit-in” protest 1 December in centre of Beirut. Political crisis amplified by sporadic riots and Sunni-Shiite clashes.
§ “Lebanon troops prepare for opposition protest”, Reuters, 1 Dec. 2006.
§ “Without international support, Lebanon may go under”, Daily Star, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Lahoud ‘to block’ Lebanon panel”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.
Somalia
U.S. submitted draft UNSC resolution recommending IGAD peacekeeping force to support Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and monitor compliance with agreements reached in Khartoum, but any deployment without prior agreement by Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) widely seen as likely to generate full-scale war. CSIC fighters clashed with Ethiopian troops backing TFG in Adale and Qasah-Omane near Baidoa 19/20 November; 6 Ethiopians reported killed. CSIC claimed 30 November ambush killed 20 Ethiopian soldiers. Talks between CSIC and TFG in Khartoum collapsed 1 November, postponed to 16 December. Report by UN Monitoring Group stated 10 countries, including members of IGAD, continued to violate UN arms embargo on Somalia: UNSC unanimously voted for continuation of monitoring group 29 November.
§ “Somalia Conflict Risk Alert”, Crisis Group, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “The rumbling rumours of war”, Economist, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ Comment by John Prendergast and Colin Thomas Jensen (Crisis Group), “Getting it wrong in Somalia, again”, Boston Globe, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 Aug. 2006.
Sudan
Major fighting erupted in south between Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in first major violation of 2005 north-south peace agreement. Fighting between SAF-aligned southern militia led by Maj Gen Gabriel Tang Ginye and SPLA escalated into major clashes between SAF and SPLA in Malakal, Upper Nile state 28 November: casualties reportedly in the hundreds. Calm restored to Malakal, following high-level interventions by SAF, SPLA and UN. Deterioration of security situation in Darfur continued as hopes raised by international talks with Khartoum, then ebbed with government backing away from agreement. UK, U.S., EU, China, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Arab League met in Addis Ababa 16 November to discuss 3-phase plan. Khartoum agreed in principle to phases 1 and 2: light technical support to existing AU force, followed by heavy support including deployment of military, police and civilian personnel as well as possible aviation and logistical assets. AU and UN reported Khartoum also agreed, in principle, to “hybrid” AU/UN operation (Phase 3), pending clarification of force size. China reportedly encouraged Khartoum to accept plan. President Bashir later rejected hybrid force in preference for “African solution”, and claimed less than 9,000 have died in Darfur. SPLM called for UN force even without consent of Khartoum. U.S. and UK suggested 1 January deadline for Khartoum to consent to AU/UN hybrid plan, or face “tougher measures”. AU PSC met in Nigeria on 29 November, agreed to extend mandate of AU mission for another 6 months.
§ “Calm after heavy fighting in southern town”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “UN expects plan on Darfur mission to advance”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Nov. 2006.
§ “ICC says Darfur evidence enough to prosecute”, Reuters, 23 Nov. 2006.
§ Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “So how come we haven’t stopped it?”, Washington Post, 19 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.
Tonga
Thousands rioted in capital Nuku’alofa 16 November after parliament appeared poised to recess without voting on proposals for greater democracy. Riots killed 8 and destroyed 80% of commercial district. Anti-ethnic Chinese sentiment cited by some as root of violence; 355 charged with riot-related crimes, while 200 Chinese nationals flown out of country in aftermath. Parliament voted to expand from 9 to 21 number of directly elected seats in 30-seat legislature, measure will take effect from 2008 elections. Coronation of new King postponed by 1 year. 150 Australian and New Zealand police and troops arrived 18 November at request of government; military component due to withdraw early December.
§ “Turbulence in Tonga”, EIU, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Tonga ‘should have elected MPs’“, BBC, 6 Oct. 2006.
Improved Situations
Kyrgyzstan
New constitution establishing parliamentary checks on presidential power ratified by President Bakiyev 9 November. Adoption came after tense week of opposition mass protests demanding constitutional change or Bakiyev’s resignation. PM Feliks Kulov rejected opposition calls for his resignation after the crisis. Sanjar Kadyraliyev, widely considered to control much of drug trafficking and racketeering in south, sworn into parliament 20 November.
§ “Making Kyrgyzstan’s constitutional reform stick”, IWPR, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Kyrgyz Prime Minister says he has no plans to resign”, RFE/RL, 15 Nov. 2006.
Nepal
Maoists and interim government signed historic peace deal 21 November, ending 10-year war. Maoists will join interim government, with constituent assembly elections scheduled for mid-2007. Details on arms management, sticking point of negotiations, finalised 27 November. Sides agreed to lock up weapons under UN supervision, state army will stay in barracks and armed Maoist fighters will be cantoned. Accord also contained provisions for truth and reconciliation commission but interim constitution and plans for restructuring security sector not yet agreed. Judicial commission submitted report to PM Koirala holding King Gyanendra, his ministers and security officials responsible for violent suppression of pro-democracy movement in April.
§ “Maoists sign peace deal in Nepal”, New York Times, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Nepal king blamed for crackdown”, BBC, 20 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°115, Nepal: From People Power to Peace?, 10 May 2006.
Senegal
President Wade met with Casamance leaders 24 November in effort to consolidate peace, announcing several measures for reconstruction including amnesty law, 60 million CFA francs in aid and rebuilding of roads.
§ “Gen Fall calls on Jammeh”, Daily Observer, 17 Nov. 2006.
Azerbaijan
Authorities shut down biggest independent broadcaster, ANS, and evicted an opposition party and 3 media outlets from their offices 24 November. Government opponents said move aimed at silencing dissent. Police broke up demonstration and arrested 12 activists demanding end to official pressure on media 16 November. Former senior presidential administration official Akif Muradverdiyev, arrested before November 2005 elections, sentenced to 6 years for attempt to topple gov’t, embezzlement and abuse of power.
§ “Attacks on Media Hurt Conflict Resolution”, Crisis Group media release, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “Authorities intensify pressure on independent media”, RFE/RL, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ For most recent Crisis Group report, see Europe Briefing N°40, Azerbaijan’s 2005 Elections: Lost Opportunity, 21 Nov. 2005.
Bolivia
President Evo Morales’s reforms met increased opposition, notably in Santa Cruz and eastern provinces. Despite opposition pledges to boycott discussion of agrarian reform bill, Morales’s MAS party steamrolled bill through senate, while 6 of 9 regional governors cut relations with Morales, and thousands marched 21 November in protest organised by civic groups and agro-businesses in Santa Cruz. Morales spoke of popular “revolt” and threatened disbanding of Senate to push through reforms, accusing opposition of injuring Bolivian democracy. MAS party also forced through controversial rules of procedure for Constituent Assembly after 3-month standoff, allowing constitutional changes by simple majority, although final document will require two-thirds’ vote.
§ “Bolivia enacts broad land-reform bill”, LA Times, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Evo Morales acusa a la oposición de impulsar un golpe a la democracia“, El País, 23 Nov. 2006.
§ “Morales opts for a pragmatic Bolivia”, Financial Times, 16 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N°18, Bolivia’s Rocky Road to Reforms, 3 July 2006.
Burundi
September ceasefire between government and FNL rebels held, but implementation of agreement increasingly divisive. Law granting temporary immunity for rebel signatories adopted but FNL refused to join Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism while some rebels remain political prisoners. Government set up commissions to determine those entitled to demobilisation benefits but without FNL input - contrary to agreement. South African contingent of UN peacekeepers to stay on as first part of AU deployment to avoid security vacuum after UN departure mid-December. Pressure on media increased as 3 leading journalists arrested on questionable grounds.
§ “Huge challenges in solving land crisis”, IRIN, 23 Nov. 2006.
Central African Republic
Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) rebels intent on toppling President François Bozizé took town of Birao 3 November, near border with Darfur and continued towards Bria 600 km from capital Bangui. Government later retook Birao with help of French troops attacked by UFDR. 45,000 fled fighting to refugee camps in Chad. Central African Economic and Monetary Community responded positively to request for help from Bangui and pledged support.
§ “French army clash with CAR rebels”, BBC, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Troops, raiders prey on Central African villagers”, AlertNet, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Central African Republic gets help to fight rebels”, AFP, 18 Nov. 2006.
Chad
Violence in east increased dramatically, with state of emergency declared 13 November. Gunmen killed 220 villagers in east; over 60 villages attacked in month. MSF aid worker also killed and over 3,000 IDPs reported missing following incident near Koloy 100km northeast of Goz Beida 16/17 November. Sudanese-backed rebels briefly captured key eastern town of Abeche 25 November. Government forces retook it following day, but rebels claimed to be 200km from N’djamena and closing. UN aid agencies evacuated non-essential staff and set up HQ in Cameroon after Abeche supplies looted. Security concerns prevented UN fact-finding team from visiting eastern Chad to consider options for deployment of monitoring mission or peacekeeping force.
§ “African leaders to discuss plans to end worsening Darfur, Chad conflict”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Arab civilians also targeted by militias”, Human Rights Watch, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “Villagers say Chad fighting killed at least 220: UN team”, AFP, 9 Nov. 2006.
Colombia
FARC violence escalated as series of deadly attacks continued. Mortar attack on police in Tierradentro 1 November killed at least 17, including 3 civilians. Heavy fighting with army forces reported 21 November in Caqueta killed 14. FARC militias launched series of attacks in Cali slums. President Uribe faced growing scandal as investigations grew into links between paramilitary groups and politicians allied to him. Supreme Court charged Senators Alvaro Garcia and Jairo Merlano and Congressman Eric Morris with funding right-wing paramilitaries in Sucre, and 60 current or former members of Congress and politicians under investigation for signing agreement with ex-paramilitary chiefs in 2001 to push for peace deal.
§ “Colombia’s Uribe, facing crisis, threatens ‘paras’”, AlertNet, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Thugs and politics”, Economist, 16 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Briefing N°11, Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia’s Uribe, 20 Oct. 2006.
Côte d’Ivoire
Situation potentially explosive as relations between PM Banny and President Gbagbo deteriorated. Security forces under Gbagbo control took to streets of Abidjan 28 November and demonstrations against Gbagbo’s reinstating government officials suspended over September’s deadly toxic waste scandal erupted 30 November. UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1721 1 November backing AU call to prolong transition for further 12 months. Resolution notably allows Banny to legislate independently of president and parliament, and to exert “necessary authority” over armed forces; Gbagbo refused to implement clauses contrary to constitution. Clashes between residents of Yopougon suburb and pro-government Patriot Grouping for Peace militia 3 November killed 4, while UN official briefly abducted 6 November by pro-Gbagbo militia in western town of Duekoue.
§ “Anti-Gbagbo demonstrations erupt”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Ivorian Premier vows to pursue divisive peace plan”, Reuters, 8 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°40, Côte d’Ivoire: Stepping Up the Pressure, 7 Sept. 2006.
Fiji
Coup tensions escalated as rifts between government and army deepened. Chief of armed forces Frank Bainimarama demanded resignation of PM Laisenia Qarase over controversial measures including preferential land rights for ethnic Fijians and amnesty for those implicated in 2000 coup, some of whom are ministers in current government. Government threatened to invite intervention from Pacific Island Forum nations, while Bainimarama said would begin “clean-up campaign” 1 December if demands not met. New Zealand brokered talks between Bainimarama and Qarase in Wellington 29 November in last-ditch effort to prevent military coup. Australia acting PM said would consider intervention. 1 December deadline passed peacefully but Bainimarama set new 4 December deadline as army planned military exercises around capital.
§ “Fiji coup deadline extended”, Radio NZ, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Fiji army sets new demand deadline”, Fiji Times, 22 Nov. 2006.
§ “NZ seeks meeting to scold Fiji chief”, Sydney Morning Herald, 21 Nov. 2006.
India (non-Kashmir)
Violence escalated in Assam, raising fears of new offensive by ULFA separatist rebels. Assam capital Guwahati hit by series of bombings 5 and 23 November killing 16; ULFA also suspected of train bombing in neighbouring West Bengal state 21 November that killed 12. Delhi announced deployment of 2000 extra troops to region. At least 3 killed in late month violence by “low-caste” Hindus in Maharashtra state prompted by desecration of statue of revered constitution framer B.R. Ambedkar in Kanpur.
§ “Caste protests grip Indian state”, BBC, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “India steps up security after deadly train blast”, AlertNet, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “More troops for India’s north-east”, BBC, 9 Nov. 2006.
Iraq
Sectarian violence rose to worst levels since U.S.-led 2003 invasion. 230 killed in 23 November bomb blasts in Baghdad’s Shiite Sadr City and retaliatory attacks on Sunni mosques 24 November. Spike in violence followed 14 November kidnapping raid by Shiite militia on Sunni-run Ministry of Higher Education and retaliatory attacks on Shiite-run Health Ministry. Moqtada al-Sadr’s Shiite group announced their temporary withdrawal from government in protest at PM Maliki’s meeting with U.S. President Bush in Jordan 30 November. Bush expressed support for Maliki and rejected rumours of U.S. gradual withdrawal. U.S. Defence Sec. Rumsfeld resigned following Republican defeat in mid-term elections; policy shift expected after report by bipartisan Iraq Study Group, due 6 December. Pentagon review of options reportedly favours short-term increase in troops with subsequent reduction coupled with long-term concentration on training and advising. Former President Saddam Hussein received death sentence for crimes against humanity; to appeal verdict. Agreement on restoring diplomatic ties with Syria, suspended for 20 years, announced 21 November.
§ “‘He’s the right guy’ - Bush defends embattled Maliki”, Guardian, 1 Dec. 2006.
§ “Waiting for Baker”, Economist, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Carnage rises in Iraq as Shiites retaliate”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Nov. 2006.
§ For most recent Crisis Group report, see Middle East Report N°56, Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk, 18 July 2006.
Lebanon
Political killing and Shiite resignations increased polarisation and brought government close to collapse. Pierre Gemayel, Phalange politician and industry minister, became fifth anti-Syrian Lebanese politician to be killed in 2 years 21 November. Syria denied involvement. Mass funeral rally held 23 November and 2-day national strike 24/25 November. Ruling pro-Western March 14 coalition increasingly embattled after 6 Shiite cabinet members, including 2 Hizbollah, 3 Amal, 1 pro-Lahoud, resigned after coalition insisted on formal approval of UN tribunal on February 2005 Hariri killing. Removal of 2 more cabinet members would make two-thirds quorum impossible. Tribunal approved by cabinet 25 November but President Lahoud refused to give final approval without Shiite vote and called cabinet unconstitutional. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated intention to bring down Siniora government unless national unity formula restored. Military on alert as Nasrallah called for mass “sit-in” protest 1 December in centre of Beirut. Political crisis amplified by sporadic riots and Sunni-Shiite clashes.
§ “Lebanon troops prepare for opposition protest”, Reuters, 1 Dec. 2006.
§ “Without international support, Lebanon may go under”, Daily Star, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Lahoud ‘to block’ Lebanon panel”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.
Somalia
U.S. submitted draft UNSC resolution recommending IGAD peacekeeping force to support Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and monitor compliance with agreements reached in Khartoum, but any deployment without prior agreement by Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) widely seen as likely to generate full-scale war. CSIC fighters clashed with Ethiopian troops backing TFG in Adale and Qasah-Omane near Baidoa 19/20 November; 6 Ethiopians reported killed. CSIC claimed 30 November ambush killed 20 Ethiopian soldiers. Talks between CSIC and TFG in Khartoum collapsed 1 November, postponed to 16 December. Report by UN Monitoring Group stated 10 countries, including members of IGAD, continued to violate UN arms embargo on Somalia: UNSC unanimously voted for continuation of monitoring group 29 November.
§ “Somalia Conflict Risk Alert”, Crisis Group, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “The rumbling rumours of war”, Economist, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ Comment by John Prendergast and Colin Thomas Jensen (Crisis Group), “Getting it wrong in Somalia, again”, Boston Globe, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 Aug. 2006.
Sudan
Major fighting erupted in south between Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in first major violation of 2005 north-south peace agreement. Fighting between SAF-aligned southern militia led by Maj Gen Gabriel Tang Ginye and SPLA escalated into major clashes between SAF and SPLA in Malakal, Upper Nile state 28 November: casualties reportedly in the hundreds. Calm restored to Malakal, following high-level interventions by SAF, SPLA and UN. Deterioration of security situation in Darfur continued as hopes raised by international talks with Khartoum, then ebbed with government backing away from agreement. UK, U.S., EU, China, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Arab League met in Addis Ababa 16 November to discuss 3-phase plan. Khartoum agreed in principle to phases 1 and 2: light technical support to existing AU force, followed by heavy support including deployment of military, police and civilian personnel as well as possible aviation and logistical assets. AU and UN reported Khartoum also agreed, in principle, to “hybrid” AU/UN operation (Phase 3), pending clarification of force size. China reportedly encouraged Khartoum to accept plan. President Bashir later rejected hybrid force in preference for “African solution”, and claimed less than 9,000 have died in Darfur. SPLM called for UN force even without consent of Khartoum. U.S. and UK suggested 1 January deadline for Khartoum to consent to AU/UN hybrid plan, or face “tougher measures”. AU PSC met in Nigeria on 29 November, agreed to extend mandate of AU mission for another 6 months.
§ “Calm after heavy fighting in southern town”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “UN expects plan on Darfur mission to advance”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Nov. 2006.
§ “ICC says Darfur evidence enough to prosecute”, Reuters, 23 Nov. 2006.
§ Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “So how come we haven’t stopped it?”, Washington Post, 19 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.
Tonga
Thousands rioted in capital Nuku’alofa 16 November after parliament appeared poised to recess without voting on proposals for greater democracy. Riots killed 8 and destroyed 80% of commercial district. Anti-ethnic Chinese sentiment cited by some as root of violence; 355 charged with riot-related crimes, while 200 Chinese nationals flown out of country in aftermath. Parliament voted to expand from 9 to 21 number of directly elected seats in 30-seat legislature, measure will take effect from 2008 elections. Coronation of new King postponed by 1 year. 150 Australian and New Zealand police and troops arrived 18 November at request of government; military component due to withdraw early December.
§ “Turbulence in Tonga”, EIU, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Tonga ‘should have elected MPs’“, BBC, 6 Oct. 2006.
Improved Situations
Kyrgyzstan
New constitution establishing parliamentary checks on presidential power ratified by President Bakiyev 9 November. Adoption came after tense week of opposition mass protests demanding constitutional change or Bakiyev’s resignation. PM Feliks Kulov rejected opposition calls for his resignation after the crisis. Sanjar Kadyraliyev, widely considered to control much of drug trafficking and racketeering in south, sworn into parliament 20 November.
§ “Making Kyrgyzstan’s constitutional reform stick”, IWPR, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Kyrgyz Prime Minister says he has no plans to resign”, RFE/RL, 15 Nov. 2006.
Nepal
Maoists and interim government signed historic peace deal 21 November, ending 10-year war. Maoists will join interim government, with constituent assembly elections scheduled for mid-2007. Details on arms management, sticking point of negotiations, finalised 27 November. Sides agreed to lock up weapons under UN supervision, state army will stay in barracks and armed Maoist fighters will be cantoned. Accord also contained provisions for truth and reconciliation commission but interim constitution and plans for restructuring security sector not yet agreed. Judicial commission submitted report to PM Koirala holding King Gyanendra, his ministers and security officials responsible for violent suppression of pro-democracy movement in April.
§ “Maoists sign peace deal in Nepal”, New York Times, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Nepal king blamed for crackdown”, BBC, 20 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°115, Nepal: From People Power to Peace?, 10 May 2006.
Senegal
President Wade met with Casamance leaders 24 November in effort to consolidate peace, announcing several measures for reconstruction including amnesty law, 60 million CFA francs in aid and rebuilding of roads.
§ “Gen Fall calls on Jammeh”, Daily Observer, 17 Nov. 2006.
segunda-feira, novembro 13, 2006
1 November 2006, N°39
Deteriorated Situations
Bangladesh
Appointment of interim caretaker administration, required by constitution to rule in lead-up to January elections, marked by violent protests and uncertainty. Talks between ruling BNP and opposition Awami League failed to yield progress on Awami demands for electoral reform and neutral head of interim government. Over 20 killed in Awami-led protests in capital 28 October; BNP leaders threatened “tit-for-tat” street action. President Iajuddin Ahmed intervened, assuming head post 29 October after BNP nominee K.M. Hasan refused. Opposition continues to demand replacement of election commissioner and boycotted swearing-in, believing Ahmed partial to BNP.
“Bangladesh rivals stage rallies”, BBC, 30 Oct. 2006.
“Bangladesh poll reform deadlock”, BBC, 25 Oct. 2006.
CAR
President Francois Bozize called for international military assistance along CAR-Chad-Sudan border after 30 October attack by armed rebels he claimed based in Sudan. Rebels reportedly seized northern town of Birao, saying would push on toward capital Bangui 800km south.
"Central African Republic asks France to help repel rebels”, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
Chad
Darfur-based Chadian rebels launched major new offensive in eastern Chad, most serious since April attack on N’djamena: took town of Goz Beida, 420 miles from capital, 22 October; heavy fighting near Sudanese border 29 October killed Chadian army chief, with both sides claiming victory. Government continued to blame Khartoum for arming rebels, while latter accused Chad of supporting rebel groups in Darfur. Sudanese militia killed at least 40 people in attacks on Chadian villages mid-October; AMIS reported 3 villages destroyed by Arab Militia suspected to be Janjaweed. Humanitarian situation deteriorated with increasingly limited access and increased refugee inflows from Darfur.
“Chad’s army chief killed in clashes with rebels”, Reuters, 29 Oct. 2006.
“Rebel push in east Chad raises fears in the capital”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Oct. 2006.
Ethiopia
Threat of regional conflict intensified as Somali Islamist forces declared jihad against Ethiopia and amassed near border in response to its military support for Somali Transitional Federal Government. PM Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war following jihad declaration. Leaked report into 2005 post-election violence confirmed government police killed 193 protesters in clashes; EU's chief election observer accused Western leaders of turning blind eye.
“Ethiopian officer captured after fierce battle, claim Islamic radicals”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Ethiopia says technically at war with Somali Islamists”, AlertNet, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Ethiopian protesters ‘massacred’”, BBC, 19 Oct. 2006.
Ethiopia/Eritrea
Tensions rose as Eritrea amassed reported 1,500 troops and 14 tanks in UN-monitored Temporary Security Zone, in what UN called “major breach” of 2000 peace agreement. Eritrea rejected UN Security Council call to withdraw, claiming right of troops to assist with food production and security. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopian troops in Somalia supporting Transitional Federal Government, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting rival Union of Islamic Courts.
“Eritrea masses troops at border”, Mail & Guardian, 25 Oct. 2006.
“Eritrea's proxy war jeopardizing regional stability – Meles”, Reporter, 21 Oct. 2006.
“Troops harvesting buffer zone”, IRIN, 17 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°101, Ethiopia and Eritrea: Preventing War, 22 Dec. 2005.
Fiji
Fiji Dispute between PM Qarase and military chief Bainimarama as troops seized ammunition stores in capital amid growing fears of military coup. Bainimarama opposes proposals by Qarase to grant amnesty to some involved in Fiji’s 2000 coup and threatened to force PM’s resignation. Qarase ordered ouster of Bainimarama 31 October but military officers refused to comply.
“Fiji's Qarase stands firm”, Age, 2 Nov. 2006.
“Fears grow of Fiji military coup”, BBC, 1 Nov. 2006.
Iraq
Sectarian violence and insurgent attacks escalated. U.S. forces reported highest death toll since November 2004 with 103 dead; over 300 Iraqi troops also killed while estimated 40 civilians dying every day. Government postponed national reconciliation conference, citing sectarian violence. Shiite militia loyal to radical cleric Moqtada Sadr clashed with Iraqi police in Amara, leaving at least 30 dead. Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin coalition of some Sunni insurgent groups staged unhindered demonstrations in large towns of western Iraq and announced creation of Islamic State in Sunni Arab heartland and adjacent areas; seen as largely symbolic response to Shiite federalism moves in south. Sunni and Shiite clerics agreed to statement calling for end to sectarian violence 20 October; includes preservation of Iraq's unity, protection of holy sites and release of innocent detainees. Iraqi legislators passed law 11 October establishing mechanism for creating new regions, further deepening fault lines that threaten country’s unity; law cannot be implemented for 18 months due to earlier compromise arrangement. Domestic calls for change in U.S. policy increased ahead of 7 November Congressional elections.
“Deadly attacks on police in Iraq”, BBC, 26 Oct. 2006.
Comment by Robert Malley and Peter Harling (Crisis Group), “Containing a Shiite symbol of hope”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Iraqi reconciliation effort is put on hold”, AP, 15 Oct. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°56, Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk, 18 July 2006.
Israel/Occupied Territories
Relations between Fatah and Hamas continued to deteriorate, Israeli incursions into Palestinian population centres intensified and potential for escalation on both fronts increased. Israeli low-intensity war in Gaza included incursion near town of Jabaliya 14 October and major fighting in northern Gaza 1 November. Some 280 Palestinians – approximately half civilians – and 2 Israeli soldiers killed in past four months. Violence came as Hamas delegation attended talks with Egyptian mediators in Cairo on possible prisoner exchange with Israel involving captured soldier Gilad Shalit. Meanwhile, several Hamas and Fatah activists killed in factional clashes in West Bank and Gaza. Negotiations on unity government collapsed despite Qatari and Egyptian mediation efforts. Hamas blamed Fatah for lack of progress and accused it of providing political cover for Western-imposed sanctions. Israeli cabinet voted to bring into government hawkish Beiteinu party.
“Israeli strikes kill 6 Palestinians, wound 33”, AlertNet, 1 Nov. 2006.
“Fatah preparing showdown with Hamas”, Jerusalem Post, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Gaza 'faction feuding' toll rises”, BBC, 23 Oct. 2006.
Comment by Gareth Evans and Robert Malley (Crisis Group), “Whose move in the Middle East?”, Washington Post, 14 Oct. 2006.
Crisis Group Middle East Initiative, “Towards a Comprehensive Settlement of the Arab-Israeli Conflict”, 4 Oct. 2006.
North Korea
Pyongyang launched first nuclear test 9 October, escalating fears of regional instability and forcing U.S. and other powers to confront reality of weaponised North Korea. UN Security Council passed Resolution 1718 14 October, calling on North Korea to end its nuclear program and imposing sanctions. China and South Korea demurred on full slate of sanctions, while Pyongyang said unwilling to return to talks unless U.S. withdraws financial sanctions imposed in September 2005. North agreed return to 6-party talks 31 October, due by year-end, but short-term prospects for settlement dim. World Food Programme warned of humanitarian disaster if food stocks not bolstered before winter.
North Korea will resume nuclear talks, New York Times, 1 Nov. 2006.
UN Security Council Resolution 1718, 14 Oct. 2006.
“North Koreans say they plan a nuclear test”, New York Times, 3 Oct. 2006.
Philippines
Philippines Talks between MILF rebels and government close to breakdown after Manila blamed rebel leaders for deadly blast that killed 7 in Mindanao 10 October; worst of series of 7 bombs in week. MILF denied involvement and demanded charges be dropped before continuing peace talks with government; later accused government of breaking ceasefire by strafing MILF bases. Supreme Court rejected Arroyo administration’s petition to hold referendum on adopting parliamentary system of government; administration vowed to appeal.
“Gov't seeks new deadline in talks”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 1 Nov. 2006.
“MILF rebels accuse troops of strafing positions amid truce”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 26 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°110, Philippines Terrorism: The Role of Militant Islamic Converts, 19 Dec. 2005.
Serbia
Serbia Government announced new constitution had been approved in 28-29 October referendum, but opposition and observers alleged massive irregularities. Turnout officially reported at 54.2%, with those in favour just over required threshold of 50% of electorate. Serb Radical Party re-elected leader Vojislav Seselj, currently in Hague on war crimes charges. Deputy state prosecutor Milorad Cvijovic arrested in corruption probe. Leadership continued to send hard-line messages on Kosovo: President Tadic warned Serbia had “right to defend its borders"; PM Kostunica said will consider any country recognising Kosovo independence as enemy.
Crisis Group media release, ”Serbia’s Constitutional Referendum: A Question Of Validity”, 30 Oct. 2006.
“Serbia’s new constitution gets off to rocky start”, IWPR, 18 Oct. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Europe Briefing N°43, Southern Serbia: In Kosovo’s Shadow, 27 June 2006.
Somalia
Somalia Situation continued to deteriorate as talks between Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Khartoum appeared close to collapsing, and fighting between both sides continued in Somalia. UIC delegation said would not negotiate with TFG until Ethiopian troops withdrawn from Somalia; also opposed Kenya’s proposed chairmanship of talks. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopian troops already in Somalia supporting TFG, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting UIC. UIC reportedly recruited 3,000 Somalis for jihad against Ethiopia and continued to make territorial gains over TFG. Ethiopia denied its troops entered key town of Dinsor end September, but Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war due to UIC jihad declaration.
“Diplomats battle to save Somali talks, avert war”, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
“Somali Islamists announce start of jihad against Ethiopia”, Mail & Guardian, 23 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 August 2006.
Sri Lanka
Lanka Violence between LTTE rebels and government continued to intensify amid heavy government losses. Over 1,000 reportedly killed since April. Government troops experienced setback in military offensive on Jaffna peninsula 11 October in attempt to clear rebels: over 130 troops killed and 400 wounded. LTTE suicide bombing on naval convoy in Habarana killed 100 sailors. Agreement between ruling SLFP and opposition UNP raised hopes of united stance on rebels, but LTTE-government talks in Geneva 28 October stalled over reopening of national highway that LTTE claimed necessary for getting humanitarian supplies to Jaffna. 3 days after talks ended, government bombed LTTE targets in Batticaloa.
Sri Lanka to rebels: stop attacks and we'll open road, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
“Sri Lanka sees peace talks stall”, New York Times, 30 Oct. 2006.
“War again”, Economist, 19 Oct. 2006.
Improved Situations
Haiti
In important vote of confidence in President Préval’s government, U.S. announced would ease 15-year arms embargo, allowing government to bolster police arms supply in fight against gangs. Kidnappings declined and efforts to disarm gangs moved forward despite continued clashes in slum areas.
“US eases weapons embargo on Haiti”, BBC, 11 Oct. 2006
Northern Ireland (UK)
St. Andrews talks 11-13 October resulted in timetable to ensure nomination of first and deputy first minister by 24 November and return to devolved power-sharing by March 2007. Deal rests on Sinn Fein commitments to support police and DUP pledges to share power with Sinn Fein; sides have until 10 November to respond to agreement. Earlier in month, UK Sec. State Peter Hain said IRA no longer terrorist threat as Independent Monitoring Commission reported group had ceased criminal activity.
“Governments in 'St Andrews talks'”, BBC, 24 Oct. 2006.
“IRA no longer a threat, says Hain”, Guardian, 4 Oct. 2006.
Conflict Risk Alerts
Bangladesh
DR Congo
Democratic Republic of Congo After month of high tension ahead of 29 October run-off election between incumbent Joseph Kabila and VP Jean-Pierre Bemba, voting passed off mostly peacefully, but serious concerns remain about potential for violence surrounding announcement of results: preliminary figures expected within 10 days. Situation calm in Kinshasa, but tensions remain despite presence of 1,600 EUFOR soldiers. Violence reported in Equateur province, where at least 2 died when police attacked crowd protesting alleged electoral fraud. Campaigning on both sides exploited ethnic divisions, with violent clashes between opposing supporters throughout country. Worst incident 18 October when Congolese and UN police forced to escort Bemba's campaign team through Lubumbashi, Kabila southeastern stronghold, after they were attacked by mobs. EU High Rep Javier Solana said EUFOR troops should leave when mandate expires 30 November, despite widespread concern departure could jeopardise electoral transition.
“While most of Congo counts ballots, some cities burn them”, International Herald Tribune , 30 Oct. 2006.
“The lesser of two evils”, Economist, 26 Oct. 2006.
“Landmark UNHCR convoy brings first of 25,000 home from Burundi”, UN News, 11 Oct. 2006.
Fiji
Somalia
Bangladesh
Appointment of interim caretaker administration, required by constitution to rule in lead-up to January elections, marked by violent protests and uncertainty. Talks between ruling BNP and opposition Awami League failed to yield progress on Awami demands for electoral reform and neutral head of interim government. Over 20 killed in Awami-led protests in capital 28 October; BNP leaders threatened “tit-for-tat” street action. President Iajuddin Ahmed intervened, assuming head post 29 October after BNP nominee K.M. Hasan refused. Opposition continues to demand replacement of election commissioner and boycotted swearing-in, believing Ahmed partial to BNP.
“Bangladesh rivals stage rallies”, BBC, 30 Oct. 2006.
“Bangladesh poll reform deadlock”, BBC, 25 Oct. 2006.
CAR
President Francois Bozize called for international military assistance along CAR-Chad-Sudan border after 30 October attack by armed rebels he claimed based in Sudan. Rebels reportedly seized northern town of Birao, saying would push on toward capital Bangui 800km south.
"Central African Republic asks France to help repel rebels”, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
Chad
Darfur-based Chadian rebels launched major new offensive in eastern Chad, most serious since April attack on N’djamena: took town of Goz Beida, 420 miles from capital, 22 October; heavy fighting near Sudanese border 29 October killed Chadian army chief, with both sides claiming victory. Government continued to blame Khartoum for arming rebels, while latter accused Chad of supporting rebel groups in Darfur. Sudanese militia killed at least 40 people in attacks on Chadian villages mid-October; AMIS reported 3 villages destroyed by Arab Militia suspected to be Janjaweed. Humanitarian situation deteriorated with increasingly limited access and increased refugee inflows from Darfur.
“Chad’s army chief killed in clashes with rebels”, Reuters, 29 Oct. 2006.
“Rebel push in east Chad raises fears in the capital”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Oct. 2006.
Ethiopia
Threat of regional conflict intensified as Somali Islamist forces declared jihad against Ethiopia and amassed near border in response to its military support for Somali Transitional Federal Government. PM Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war following jihad declaration. Leaked report into 2005 post-election violence confirmed government police killed 193 protesters in clashes; EU's chief election observer accused Western leaders of turning blind eye.
“Ethiopian officer captured after fierce battle, claim Islamic radicals”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Ethiopia says technically at war with Somali Islamists”, AlertNet, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Ethiopian protesters ‘massacred’”, BBC, 19 Oct. 2006.
Ethiopia/Eritrea
Tensions rose as Eritrea amassed reported 1,500 troops and 14 tanks in UN-monitored Temporary Security Zone, in what UN called “major breach” of 2000 peace agreement. Eritrea rejected UN Security Council call to withdraw, claiming right of troops to assist with food production and security. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopian troops in Somalia supporting Transitional Federal Government, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting rival Union of Islamic Courts.
“Eritrea masses troops at border”, Mail & Guardian, 25 Oct. 2006.
“Eritrea's proxy war jeopardizing regional stability – Meles”, Reporter, 21 Oct. 2006.
“Troops harvesting buffer zone”, IRIN, 17 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°101, Ethiopia and Eritrea: Preventing War, 22 Dec. 2005.
Fiji
Fiji Dispute between PM Qarase and military chief Bainimarama as troops seized ammunition stores in capital amid growing fears of military coup. Bainimarama opposes proposals by Qarase to grant amnesty to some involved in Fiji’s 2000 coup and threatened to force PM’s resignation. Qarase ordered ouster of Bainimarama 31 October but military officers refused to comply.
“Fiji's Qarase stands firm”, Age, 2 Nov. 2006.
“Fears grow of Fiji military coup”, BBC, 1 Nov. 2006.
Iraq
Sectarian violence and insurgent attacks escalated. U.S. forces reported highest death toll since November 2004 with 103 dead; over 300 Iraqi troops also killed while estimated 40 civilians dying every day. Government postponed national reconciliation conference, citing sectarian violence. Shiite militia loyal to radical cleric Moqtada Sadr clashed with Iraqi police in Amara, leaving at least 30 dead. Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin coalition of some Sunni insurgent groups staged unhindered demonstrations in large towns of western Iraq and announced creation of Islamic State in Sunni Arab heartland and adjacent areas; seen as largely symbolic response to Shiite federalism moves in south. Sunni and Shiite clerics agreed to statement calling for end to sectarian violence 20 October; includes preservation of Iraq's unity, protection of holy sites and release of innocent detainees. Iraqi legislators passed law 11 October establishing mechanism for creating new regions, further deepening fault lines that threaten country’s unity; law cannot be implemented for 18 months due to earlier compromise arrangement. Domestic calls for change in U.S. policy increased ahead of 7 November Congressional elections.
“Deadly attacks on police in Iraq”, BBC, 26 Oct. 2006.
Comment by Robert Malley and Peter Harling (Crisis Group), “Containing a Shiite symbol of hope”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Iraqi reconciliation effort is put on hold”, AP, 15 Oct. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°56, Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk, 18 July 2006.
Israel/Occupied Territories
Relations between Fatah and Hamas continued to deteriorate, Israeli incursions into Palestinian population centres intensified and potential for escalation on both fronts increased. Israeli low-intensity war in Gaza included incursion near town of Jabaliya 14 October and major fighting in northern Gaza 1 November. Some 280 Palestinians – approximately half civilians – and 2 Israeli soldiers killed in past four months. Violence came as Hamas delegation attended talks with Egyptian mediators in Cairo on possible prisoner exchange with Israel involving captured soldier Gilad Shalit. Meanwhile, several Hamas and Fatah activists killed in factional clashes in West Bank and Gaza. Negotiations on unity government collapsed despite Qatari and Egyptian mediation efforts. Hamas blamed Fatah for lack of progress and accused it of providing political cover for Western-imposed sanctions. Israeli cabinet voted to bring into government hawkish Beiteinu party.
“Israeli strikes kill 6 Palestinians, wound 33”, AlertNet, 1 Nov. 2006.
“Fatah preparing showdown with Hamas”, Jerusalem Post, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Gaza 'faction feuding' toll rises”, BBC, 23 Oct. 2006.
Comment by Gareth Evans and Robert Malley (Crisis Group), “Whose move in the Middle East?”, Washington Post, 14 Oct. 2006.
Crisis Group Middle East Initiative, “Towards a Comprehensive Settlement of the Arab-Israeli Conflict”, 4 Oct. 2006.
North Korea
Pyongyang launched first nuclear test 9 October, escalating fears of regional instability and forcing U.S. and other powers to confront reality of weaponised North Korea. UN Security Council passed Resolution 1718 14 October, calling on North Korea to end its nuclear program and imposing sanctions. China and South Korea demurred on full slate of sanctions, while Pyongyang said unwilling to return to talks unless U.S. withdraws financial sanctions imposed in September 2005. North agreed return to 6-party talks 31 October, due by year-end, but short-term prospects for settlement dim. World Food Programme warned of humanitarian disaster if food stocks not bolstered before winter.
North Korea will resume nuclear talks, New York Times, 1 Nov. 2006.
UN Security Council Resolution 1718, 14 Oct. 2006.
“North Koreans say they plan a nuclear test”, New York Times, 3 Oct. 2006.
Philippines
Philippines Talks between MILF rebels and government close to breakdown after Manila blamed rebel leaders for deadly blast that killed 7 in Mindanao 10 October; worst of series of 7 bombs in week. MILF denied involvement and demanded charges be dropped before continuing peace talks with government; later accused government of breaking ceasefire by strafing MILF bases. Supreme Court rejected Arroyo administration’s petition to hold referendum on adopting parliamentary system of government; administration vowed to appeal.
“Gov't seeks new deadline in talks”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 1 Nov. 2006.
“MILF rebels accuse troops of strafing positions amid truce”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 26 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°110, Philippines Terrorism: The Role of Militant Islamic Converts, 19 Dec. 2005.
Serbia
Serbia Government announced new constitution had been approved in 28-29 October referendum, but opposition and observers alleged massive irregularities. Turnout officially reported at 54.2%, with those in favour just over required threshold of 50% of electorate. Serb Radical Party re-elected leader Vojislav Seselj, currently in Hague on war crimes charges. Deputy state prosecutor Milorad Cvijovic arrested in corruption probe. Leadership continued to send hard-line messages on Kosovo: President Tadic warned Serbia had “right to defend its borders"; PM Kostunica said will consider any country recognising Kosovo independence as enemy.
Crisis Group media release, ”Serbia’s Constitutional Referendum: A Question Of Validity”, 30 Oct. 2006.
“Serbia’s new constitution gets off to rocky start”, IWPR, 18 Oct. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Europe Briefing N°43, Southern Serbia: In Kosovo’s Shadow, 27 June 2006.
Somalia
Somalia Situation continued to deteriorate as talks between Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Khartoum appeared close to collapsing, and fighting between both sides continued in Somalia. UIC delegation said would not negotiate with TFG until Ethiopian troops withdrawn from Somalia; also opposed Kenya’s proposed chairmanship of talks. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopian troops already in Somalia supporting TFG, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting UIC. UIC reportedly recruited 3,000 Somalis for jihad against Ethiopia and continued to make territorial gains over TFG. Ethiopia denied its troops entered key town of Dinsor end September, but Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war due to UIC jihad declaration.
“Diplomats battle to save Somali talks, avert war”, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
“Somali Islamists announce start of jihad against Ethiopia”, Mail & Guardian, 23 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 August 2006.
Sri Lanka
Lanka Violence between LTTE rebels and government continued to intensify amid heavy government losses. Over 1,000 reportedly killed since April. Government troops experienced setback in military offensive on Jaffna peninsula 11 October in attempt to clear rebels: over 130 troops killed and 400 wounded. LTTE suicide bombing on naval convoy in Habarana killed 100 sailors. Agreement between ruling SLFP and opposition UNP raised hopes of united stance on rebels, but LTTE-government talks in Geneva 28 October stalled over reopening of national highway that LTTE claimed necessary for getting humanitarian supplies to Jaffna. 3 days after talks ended, government bombed LTTE targets in Batticaloa.
Sri Lanka to rebels: stop attacks and we'll open road, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
“Sri Lanka sees peace talks stall”, New York Times, 30 Oct. 2006.
“War again”, Economist, 19 Oct. 2006.
Improved Situations
Haiti
In important vote of confidence in President Préval’s government, U.S. announced would ease 15-year arms embargo, allowing government to bolster police arms supply in fight against gangs. Kidnappings declined and efforts to disarm gangs moved forward despite continued clashes in slum areas.
“US eases weapons embargo on Haiti”, BBC, 11 Oct. 2006
Northern Ireland (UK)
St. Andrews talks 11-13 October resulted in timetable to ensure nomination of first and deputy first minister by 24 November and return to devolved power-sharing by March 2007. Deal rests on Sinn Fein commitments to support police and DUP pledges to share power with Sinn Fein; sides have until 10 November to respond to agreement. Earlier in month, UK Sec. State Peter Hain said IRA no longer terrorist threat as Independent Monitoring Commission reported group had ceased criminal activity.
“Governments in 'St Andrews talks'”, BBC, 24 Oct. 2006.
“IRA no longer a threat, says Hain”, Guardian, 4 Oct. 2006.
Conflict Risk Alerts
Bangladesh
DR Congo
Democratic Republic of Congo After month of high tension ahead of 29 October run-off election between incumbent Joseph Kabila and VP Jean-Pierre Bemba, voting passed off mostly peacefully, but serious concerns remain about potential for violence surrounding announcement of results: preliminary figures expected within 10 days. Situation calm in Kinshasa, but tensions remain despite presence of 1,600 EUFOR soldiers. Violence reported in Equateur province, where at least 2 died when police attacked crowd protesting alleged electoral fraud. Campaigning on both sides exploited ethnic divisions, with violent clashes between opposing supporters throughout country. Worst incident 18 October when Congolese and UN police forced to escort Bemba's campaign team through Lubumbashi, Kabila southeastern stronghold, after they were attacked by mobs. EU High Rep Javier Solana said EUFOR troops should leave when mandate expires 30 November, despite widespread concern departure could jeopardise electoral transition.
“While most of Congo counts ballots, some cities burn them”, International Herald Tribune , 30 Oct. 2006.
“The lesser of two evils”, Economist, 26 Oct. 2006.
“Landmark UNHCR convoy brings first of 25,000 home from Burundi”, UN News, 11 Oct. 2006.
Fiji
Somalia
terça-feira, outubro 03, 2006
1 October 2006, N°38
Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan
Major NATO-led offensive brought heavy fighting in southern provinces, while incidence of suicide bombings spiked. NATO claimed 1,000 Taliban fighters killed in south as part of Operation Medusa, while thousands of families displaced in Panjwayi and Zhari districts outside Kandahar. Separate major offensive, Operation Mountain Fury, launched by U.S. and local security forces in eastern provinces, where a U.S. report noted 2 to 3-fold rise in attacks in September after Pakistani deal with North Waziristan militants. Assassinations claimed prominent figures including governor of Paktia and provincial head of women’s ministry in Kandahar. President Musharraf and Karzai traded accusations about source of increasing violence, later met with President Bush in Washington: no specific agreements reached beyond possibility of cross-border jirgas. U.S. said 12,000 troops in east would be placed under NATO command; 10,000 more remain under U.S. command.
“After the fighting, a battle for hope”, The Guardian, 25 Sept. 2006.
“Afghanistan hit by wave of suicide bombings”, The Guardian, 19 Sept. 2006.
“U.S., Afghan troops launch offensive”, Washington Post, 16 Sept. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°116, Afghanistan’s New Legislature: Making Democracy Work, 15 May 2006.
Bolivia
Potential for significant unrest as President Morales’ reforms hit stumbling blocks and rifts emerged in Constituent Assembly. Santa Cruz and regional allies walked out of Assembly 1 September after Morales’ MAS party imposed simple majority instead of two-thirds vote as threshold for making changes. Further evidence of regional divide 22 September: farmers and trade unionists in Santa Cruz, angered by opposition to land reform program, blocked roads. VP Garcia raised stakes in speech to country’s peasants that included veritable call to arms in defense of “revolutionary government”. Full nationalisation of hydrocarbons industry continued to stall: minister in charge resigned after crisis in relations with Brazil prompted by granting state-owned YPFB control over 2 refineries owned by Brazilian gas giant Petrobras; new minister expected to take more conciliatory tone.
“Bolivia leaders find their promises are hard to keep”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Sept. 2006.
“Power grab”, The Economist, 7 Sept. 2006.
“Brazil tries to ease Bolivian gas dispute”, Financial Times, 21 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N°18, Bolivia’s Rocky Road to Reforms, 3 July 2006.
Chad
Fighting escalated between government and rebels in eastern Chad allied to Mahamat Nour’s FUCD. Government reportedly resumed offensive 10 September, ending lull that had prevailed since rebels expelled from N’Djamena in April. Army chief claimed 168 rebels killed in major operation 13 September around Aram Kolle; FUCD claimed hundreds of soldiers killed in same operation. UN and aid agencies expressed concern about military build-up around Abeche.
“New fronts open in eastern fighting”, AlertNet, 21 Sept. 2006.
“Govt and rebels clash in east”, IRIN, 13 Sept. 2006.
Georgia
Tensions with Russia mounted after 4 Russian military officers detained by Georgian authorities for espionage 27 September. Russia suspended ongoing troop pullout from 2 Georgian bases 30 September, recalled ambassador and most diplomatic staff, halted issuance of visas, and asked UN Security Council to censure Tbilisi. President Saakashvili accused Russia in UN General Assembly speech of annexing Georgian conflict zones and perpetuating conflicts in. NATO invited Georgia to begin “Intensified Dialogue” on membership; move criticised by Russia. In South Ossetia, 3 Ossetians and 1 Georgian killed in exchange of fire 8 September. De facto South Ossetian president Kokoity announced independence referendum and presidential elections to be held 12 November; Joint Control Commission meeting cancelled. In Abkhazia, 1 civilian reportedly killed in clash between police and gunmen. 13 opposition activists charged for alleged coup plot; opposition said arrests political. Local elections due 5 October.
“Moscow suspends Georgia troop pullout”, RFE/RL, 30 Sept. 2006.
“Georgian opposition: coup arrests are campaign tactic”, Eurasia Insight, 13 Sept. 2006.
Kyrgyzstan
Court upheld 5-year sentence of ‘For a Just Kazakhstan’ movement activist Alibek Zhumabaev for organising “mass disturbance”; opposition said trial political. In Qaraghanda, court upheld 3-year suspended prison sentence of opposition Naghiz Aq-Zhol party co-chairman Bolat Abilov.
“Kazakh court upholds verdict against opposition activist”, RFE/RL, 15 Sept. 2006.
Thailand
PM Thaksin deposed 19 September in bloodless coup. Army generals led by General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin revoked 1997 constitution and severely limited freedoms of assembly and speech. Military ‘Council for Democratic Reform’ (CDR) appointed retired general Surayud Chulanont as interim prime minister 1 October and promised to hold elections within a year, but reserved control over security affairs and right to sack PM. CDR will appoint 250-member interim legislature and 2,000-strong “people’s assembly” which in turn will select 100-200 team to draft new constitution. U.S. called coup “U-turn” for democracy and suspended $24 million in military aid. Coup may turn out to be marginally positive for southern conflict: Thaksin’s rivalry with military had been key obstacle to effective management and Gen. Sonthi more receptive to recommendations of National Reconciliation Commission. Violence continued in south with 6 bombs detonated in economic hub of Hat Yai 16 September, killing 4.
Comment by Francesca Lawe-Davies (Crisis Group), “A silver lining in Thailand’s coup?”, ABC News International, 28 Sept 2006.
“Thai coup uproots a thin democracy”, Christian Science Monitor, 21 Sept. 2006.
“Toxic Thaksin”, Foreign Affairs, 27 Sept 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°105, Thailand’s Emergency Decree: No Solution, 18 Nov. 2005; and N°98, Southern Thailand: Insurgency, Not Jihad, 18 May 2005.
Turkmenistan
Journalist and activist Ogulsapar Muradova died in prison; family reported head and neck injuries, disputing official “natural causes” verdict. Official obstruction and harassment of family condemned by international rights activists; UN expressed “grave concern”.
“Turkmenistan takes terror to new level”, Eurasia Insight, 14 Sept. 2006.
“Jailed RFE/RL journalist died in custody - rights group”, IRIN, 14 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°85, Repression and Regression in Turkmenistan: A New International Strategy, 4 Nov. 2004.
Improved Situations
Burundi
FNL rebels signed surprise ceasefire agreement with government 7 September in Dar es Salaam. Deal seen as positive, but thought doubtful will hold given unrealistic 30-day deadline for demobilisation and lack of political incentives for FNL. Few rebels adhered to provisions requiring them to assemble at specified sites, saying government must first negotiate outstanding issues such as freeing of FNL prisoners and immunity for ex-combatants. Police clashed with splinter FNL Sindayigaya faction in Bubanza province 27 September. Domestic politics remained in turmoil as second most powerful member of CNDD-FDD ruling party, second Vice-President Alice Nzomukunda, resigned 6 September, accusing party leader Hussein Rajabu of human-rights violations, lying and corruption.
“Burundi rebel delegation arrives in Bujumbura”, Reuters, 28 Sept. 2006.
“Peace is nice unless it’s phoney”, The Economist, 14 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°31, Elections in Burundi: A Radical Shake-Up of the Political Landscape, 25 Aug. 2005.
Conflict Risk Alerts
Côte d'Ivoire
Concern mounting as UN-sponsored 12-month extension of President Gbagbo’s mandate approaches expiry 31 October. Foreign diplomats monitoring peace plan proposed increasing PM Banny’s powers vis a vis Gbagbo. UN Security Council to discuss proposals 17 October, while ECOWAS and AU to suggest new poll date to UNSC. Gbagbo boycotted meeting on sidelines of UN General Assembly 20 September where AU-endorsed mediator Mbeki met rebel and opposition chiefs, regional leaders and UNSG Annan to break deadlock. Gbagbo dismissed UN peace process and vowed to present own solutions to AU Peace and Security Council. Banny government reconstituted largely intact after briefly resigning 6 September amid toxic waste scandal.
“Mbeki battles to unlock Côte d’Ivoire’s peace process”, Mail & Guardian, 27 Sept. 2006.
“Ivory Coast’s Gbagbo must go to allow peace – rebel”, AlertNet, 21 Sept. 2006.
DR Congo
Tensions rose ahead of 29 October presidential run-off vote between President Kabila and Vice-President Bemba. Third- and fourth-placed finishers in 30 July poll, Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu, pledged support for Kabila, while Bemba failed to secure alliance with influential Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS party, which boycotted first round. Following interventions by South African President Mbeki, EU foreign policy chief Solana and others, Kabila and Bemba met 13 September to discuss confinement of army and militia to barracks during electoral period. Bemba and Kabila representatives signed agreement 25 September to make Kinshasa weapons-free zone during and immediately after vote. Bemba-owned media outlets destroyed in 19 September arson attack, leading to demonstrations and mass arrests. First democratically elected parliament in 20 years inaugurated 22 September, with Kabila’s AMP alliance holding biggest share of seats (approx 300 of 500). Army head in Ituri claimed militias belonging to Front des Nationalistes et Integrationnistes rearming around Bunia. In North Kivu, dissident General Laurent Nkunda warned that deployment of troops to territory under his control would trigger violence. MONUC mandate extended by UN Security Council until 15 February 2007.
“Majority coalition in parliament backs Kabila”, IRIN, 29 Sept. 2006.
“Presidential hopefuls agree to disarm for next election”, IRIN, 25 Sept. 2006.
Somalia
Progress early in month between Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) largely negated by assassination attempt on president, UIC capture of Kismayo and Ethiopian troop deployment to Baidoa. President Yusuf survived country’s first suicide bombing 18 September, but 12 others killed, including Yusuf’s brother. UIC extended control over southern Somalia by taking Kismayo port 25 September; angry protests against Courts’ burning of Somali flag there led to shooting and death of 3. In response TFG again called for international arms embargo to be lifted to enable it to train security forces to protect its citizens. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops sighted in Baidoa in late September; believed to be in reaction to UIC capture of Kismayo, and part of continued Ethiopian effort to support TFG. Earlier in month, TFG and UIC had pledged commitment to 22 June agreement on mutual recognition, agreed in principle to unify armed groups and not seek help from foreign powers, and committed to work towards power-sharing arrangement at 30 October talks. IGAD proposal to send peacekeepers, strongly opposed by UIC, endorsed by AU 13 September.
“UIC disarms militia, tightens control over Kismayo”, IRIN, 28 Sept. 2006.
“Govt tells UN debate Islamic Courts’ actions are threatening peace negotiations”, allAfrica.com, 26 Sept. 2006.
“Ethiopian troops are in Somalia, say witnesses”, Mail & Guardian, 25 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 August 2006.
Afghanistan
Major NATO-led offensive brought heavy fighting in southern provinces, while incidence of suicide bombings spiked. NATO claimed 1,000 Taliban fighters killed in south as part of Operation Medusa, while thousands of families displaced in Panjwayi and Zhari districts outside Kandahar. Separate major offensive, Operation Mountain Fury, launched by U.S. and local security forces in eastern provinces, where a U.S. report noted 2 to 3-fold rise in attacks in September after Pakistani deal with North Waziristan militants. Assassinations claimed prominent figures including governor of Paktia and provincial head of women’s ministry in Kandahar. President Musharraf and Karzai traded accusations about source of increasing violence, later met with President Bush in Washington: no specific agreements reached beyond possibility of cross-border jirgas. U.S. said 12,000 troops in east would be placed under NATO command; 10,000 more remain under U.S. command.
“After the fighting, a battle for hope”, The Guardian, 25 Sept. 2006.
“Afghanistan hit by wave of suicide bombings”, The Guardian, 19 Sept. 2006.
“U.S., Afghan troops launch offensive”, Washington Post, 16 Sept. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°116, Afghanistan’s New Legislature: Making Democracy Work, 15 May 2006.
Bolivia
Potential for significant unrest as President Morales’ reforms hit stumbling blocks and rifts emerged in Constituent Assembly. Santa Cruz and regional allies walked out of Assembly 1 September after Morales’ MAS party imposed simple majority instead of two-thirds vote as threshold for making changes. Further evidence of regional divide 22 September: farmers and trade unionists in Santa Cruz, angered by opposition to land reform program, blocked roads. VP Garcia raised stakes in speech to country’s peasants that included veritable call to arms in defense of “revolutionary government”. Full nationalisation of hydrocarbons industry continued to stall: minister in charge resigned after crisis in relations with Brazil prompted by granting state-owned YPFB control over 2 refineries owned by Brazilian gas giant Petrobras; new minister expected to take more conciliatory tone.
“Bolivia leaders find their promises are hard to keep”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Sept. 2006.
“Power grab”, The Economist, 7 Sept. 2006.
“Brazil tries to ease Bolivian gas dispute”, Financial Times, 21 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N°18, Bolivia’s Rocky Road to Reforms, 3 July 2006.
Chad
Fighting escalated between government and rebels in eastern Chad allied to Mahamat Nour’s FUCD. Government reportedly resumed offensive 10 September, ending lull that had prevailed since rebels expelled from N’Djamena in April. Army chief claimed 168 rebels killed in major operation 13 September around Aram Kolle; FUCD claimed hundreds of soldiers killed in same operation. UN and aid agencies expressed concern about military build-up around Abeche.
“New fronts open in eastern fighting”, AlertNet, 21 Sept. 2006.
“Govt and rebels clash in east”, IRIN, 13 Sept. 2006.
Georgia
Tensions with Russia mounted after 4 Russian military officers detained by Georgian authorities for espionage 27 September. Russia suspended ongoing troop pullout from 2 Georgian bases 30 September, recalled ambassador and most diplomatic staff, halted issuance of visas, and asked UN Security Council to censure Tbilisi. President Saakashvili accused Russia in UN General Assembly speech of annexing Georgian conflict zones and perpetuating conflicts in. NATO invited Georgia to begin “Intensified Dialogue” on membership; move criticised by Russia. In South Ossetia, 3 Ossetians and 1 Georgian killed in exchange of fire 8 September. De facto South Ossetian president Kokoity announced independence referendum and presidential elections to be held 12 November; Joint Control Commission meeting cancelled. In Abkhazia, 1 civilian reportedly killed in clash between police and gunmen. 13 opposition activists charged for alleged coup plot; opposition said arrests political. Local elections due 5 October.
“Moscow suspends Georgia troop pullout”, RFE/RL, 30 Sept. 2006.
“Georgian opposition: coup arrests are campaign tactic”, Eurasia Insight, 13 Sept. 2006.
Kyrgyzstan
Court upheld 5-year sentence of ‘For a Just Kazakhstan’ movement activist Alibek Zhumabaev for organising “mass disturbance”; opposition said trial political. In Qaraghanda, court upheld 3-year suspended prison sentence of opposition Naghiz Aq-Zhol party co-chairman Bolat Abilov.
“Kazakh court upholds verdict against opposition activist”, RFE/RL, 15 Sept. 2006.
Thailand
PM Thaksin deposed 19 September in bloodless coup. Army generals led by General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin revoked 1997 constitution and severely limited freedoms of assembly and speech. Military ‘Council for Democratic Reform’ (CDR) appointed retired general Surayud Chulanont as interim prime minister 1 October and promised to hold elections within a year, but reserved control over security affairs and right to sack PM. CDR will appoint 250-member interim legislature and 2,000-strong “people’s assembly” which in turn will select 100-200 team to draft new constitution. U.S. called coup “U-turn” for democracy and suspended $24 million in military aid. Coup may turn out to be marginally positive for southern conflict: Thaksin’s rivalry with military had been key obstacle to effective management and Gen. Sonthi more receptive to recommendations of National Reconciliation Commission. Violence continued in south with 6 bombs detonated in economic hub of Hat Yai 16 September, killing 4.
Comment by Francesca Lawe-Davies (Crisis Group), “A silver lining in Thailand’s coup?”, ABC News International, 28 Sept 2006.
“Thai coup uproots a thin democracy”, Christian Science Monitor, 21 Sept. 2006.
“Toxic Thaksin”, Foreign Affairs, 27 Sept 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°105, Thailand’s Emergency Decree: No Solution, 18 Nov. 2005; and N°98, Southern Thailand: Insurgency, Not Jihad, 18 May 2005.
Turkmenistan
Journalist and activist Ogulsapar Muradova died in prison; family reported head and neck injuries, disputing official “natural causes” verdict. Official obstruction and harassment of family condemned by international rights activists; UN expressed “grave concern”.
“Turkmenistan takes terror to new level”, Eurasia Insight, 14 Sept. 2006.
“Jailed RFE/RL journalist died in custody - rights group”, IRIN, 14 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°85, Repression and Regression in Turkmenistan: A New International Strategy, 4 Nov. 2004.
Improved Situations
Burundi
FNL rebels signed surprise ceasefire agreement with government 7 September in Dar es Salaam. Deal seen as positive, but thought doubtful will hold given unrealistic 30-day deadline for demobilisation and lack of political incentives for FNL. Few rebels adhered to provisions requiring them to assemble at specified sites, saying government must first negotiate outstanding issues such as freeing of FNL prisoners and immunity for ex-combatants. Police clashed with splinter FNL Sindayigaya faction in Bubanza province 27 September. Domestic politics remained in turmoil as second most powerful member of CNDD-FDD ruling party, second Vice-President Alice Nzomukunda, resigned 6 September, accusing party leader Hussein Rajabu of human-rights violations, lying and corruption.
“Burundi rebel delegation arrives in Bujumbura”, Reuters, 28 Sept. 2006.
“Peace is nice unless it’s phoney”, The Economist, 14 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°31, Elections in Burundi: A Radical Shake-Up of the Political Landscape, 25 Aug. 2005.
Conflict Risk Alerts
Côte d'Ivoire
Concern mounting as UN-sponsored 12-month extension of President Gbagbo’s mandate approaches expiry 31 October. Foreign diplomats monitoring peace plan proposed increasing PM Banny’s powers vis a vis Gbagbo. UN Security Council to discuss proposals 17 October, while ECOWAS and AU to suggest new poll date to UNSC. Gbagbo boycotted meeting on sidelines of UN General Assembly 20 September where AU-endorsed mediator Mbeki met rebel and opposition chiefs, regional leaders and UNSG Annan to break deadlock. Gbagbo dismissed UN peace process and vowed to present own solutions to AU Peace and Security Council. Banny government reconstituted largely intact after briefly resigning 6 September amid toxic waste scandal.
“Mbeki battles to unlock Côte d’Ivoire’s peace process”, Mail & Guardian, 27 Sept. 2006.
“Ivory Coast’s Gbagbo must go to allow peace – rebel”, AlertNet, 21 Sept. 2006.
DR Congo
Tensions rose ahead of 29 October presidential run-off vote between President Kabila and Vice-President Bemba. Third- and fourth-placed finishers in 30 July poll, Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu, pledged support for Kabila, while Bemba failed to secure alliance with influential Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS party, which boycotted first round. Following interventions by South African President Mbeki, EU foreign policy chief Solana and others, Kabila and Bemba met 13 September to discuss confinement of army and militia to barracks during electoral period. Bemba and Kabila representatives signed agreement 25 September to make Kinshasa weapons-free zone during and immediately after vote. Bemba-owned media outlets destroyed in 19 September arson attack, leading to demonstrations and mass arrests. First democratically elected parliament in 20 years inaugurated 22 September, with Kabila’s AMP alliance holding biggest share of seats (approx 300 of 500). Army head in Ituri claimed militias belonging to Front des Nationalistes et Integrationnistes rearming around Bunia. In North Kivu, dissident General Laurent Nkunda warned that deployment of troops to territory under his control would trigger violence. MONUC mandate extended by UN Security Council until 15 February 2007.
“Majority coalition in parliament backs Kabila”, IRIN, 29 Sept. 2006.
“Presidential hopefuls agree to disarm for next election”, IRIN, 25 Sept. 2006.
Somalia
Progress early in month between Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) largely negated by assassination attempt on president, UIC capture of Kismayo and Ethiopian troop deployment to Baidoa. President Yusuf survived country’s first suicide bombing 18 September, but 12 others killed, including Yusuf’s brother. UIC extended control over southern Somalia by taking Kismayo port 25 September; angry protests against Courts’ burning of Somali flag there led to shooting and death of 3. In response TFG again called for international arms embargo to be lifted to enable it to train security forces to protect its citizens. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops sighted in Baidoa in late September; believed to be in reaction to UIC capture of Kismayo, and part of continued Ethiopian effort to support TFG. Earlier in month, TFG and UIC had pledged commitment to 22 June agreement on mutual recognition, agreed in principle to unify armed groups and not seek help from foreign powers, and committed to work towards power-sharing arrangement at 30 October talks. IGAD proposal to send peacekeepers, strongly opposed by UIC, endorsed by AU 13 September.
“UIC disarms militia, tightens control over Kismayo”, IRIN, 28 Sept. 2006.
“Govt tells UN debate Islamic Courts’ actions are threatening peace negotiations”, allAfrica.com, 26 Sept. 2006.
“Ethiopian troops are in Somalia, say witnesses”, Mail & Guardian, 25 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 August 2006.
domingo, setembro 17, 2006
The Mundane Stuff about Living in Dafur
Continuamos com as crónicas na primeira pessoa de uma amiga que se encontra em Darfur a trabalhar, para que todos percebam o que de bom e de mau existe em trabalhar em território perigoso e complexo.
Nyala, where I am, is a great town. The commercial capital of Darfur and a thriving metropolis in Darfur terms. It has a couple of sets of traffic lights, some bitumen roads, and about 3 restaurants. The streets aren't packed but there are 3 wheel tuk tuks, little yellow cabs, Utes (pick ups for the non Aussies) and UN /NGO 4wds everywhere. There is a market... stalls of wilted vegetables, plenty of oranges and grapefruit, dodging ditches of muddy water, lots shoes for sale on tarps and bright cloth and spices and orange lentils and sundried tomatoes and okra laid out on more tarps to dry in the sun. Piles of huge watermelons and platters of oil with taameya (falafel) bubbling away. Many of the sellers are women with bright cloth wrapped around them and half-heartedly draped over their heads. There is even an open air cinema here – Arabic films only – and plenty of shops and a bus station and an airport. Around the corner from our guest house is some kind of function centre – some days lots of men sitting outside watching football or something on TV, other times wedding parties, complete with reggae bands and people dancing and yelling.
Nyala is also surprisingly green! So much for being in the desert! It's actually rainy season here, meaning it pours down at least once every 3 days, and the thunder bellows and shakes the house, rain slams in through every crack and it’s a great show before it comes with huge sky scapes of bright sheet and fork lightening. After the rain the wadis (dry creek beds) fill with water, everything goes green and the roads (largely dirt) turn to bogs. We need the 4wds and access to camps can be tricky. 15 kms takes a good 45 minutes to navigate. There are even frangipani trees and palm trees.
We have radio check each evening (I never knew my foxtrot charlie delta indigo stuff before now) and you have to remember to carry your heavy clunky radio with you everywhere. And in theory have it on. As for phones, the mobile phone network is temperamental at best. So email and skype it is!
We live in a "guest house" like most NGOs, which effectively means its rented by the organization and we have a per night rate. It has 3 bedrooms and a living space above the office with the usual high walls, barbed wire, sleepy smiling security guard or two, and a couple of land cruisers. The kitchen is downstairs in another small building and a lovely smiling Sudanese woman comes and cooks us Fatoor (breakfast) each day at about 11am consisting of beans, eggplant, bread, chilli, and omelet, so the office eats together during the week.
It's hard to realize at times that there is a conflict here – life in town is pretty easy, especially for the aid workers. Although I have seen plenty of trucks of armed men driving through town. Some in uniform, many not. I am gradually learning who these groups are. Sometimes we see men with camels in town and as you drive out of town many more camel herders, and herds of cattle too. What we do see is the frustrations of the work here, some things which should be easy somehow take on a political dimension and become impossible.
Outside of the town are the camps of persons displaced by conflict. 90, 000 or more in the one I visit most regularly. And these people all have their stories and fears. But I know that elsewhere, in the north of Darfur and in the south of this state, it is more tense.. just watch the news, the numbers of military growing, especially north of El Fasher. And here I wonder how long till we too see these changes?
Nyala, where I am, is a great town. The commercial capital of Darfur and a thriving metropolis in Darfur terms. It has a couple of sets of traffic lights, some bitumen roads, and about 3 restaurants. The streets aren't packed but there are 3 wheel tuk tuks, little yellow cabs, Utes (pick ups for the non Aussies) and UN /NGO 4wds everywhere. There is a market... stalls of wilted vegetables, plenty of oranges and grapefruit, dodging ditches of muddy water, lots shoes for sale on tarps and bright cloth and spices and orange lentils and sundried tomatoes and okra laid out on more tarps to dry in the sun. Piles of huge watermelons and platters of oil with taameya (falafel) bubbling away. Many of the sellers are women with bright cloth wrapped around them and half-heartedly draped over their heads. There is even an open air cinema here – Arabic films only – and plenty of shops and a bus station and an airport. Around the corner from our guest house is some kind of function centre – some days lots of men sitting outside watching football or something on TV, other times wedding parties, complete with reggae bands and people dancing and yelling.
Nyala is also surprisingly green! So much for being in the desert! It's actually rainy season here, meaning it pours down at least once every 3 days, and the thunder bellows and shakes the house, rain slams in through every crack and it’s a great show before it comes with huge sky scapes of bright sheet and fork lightening. After the rain the wadis (dry creek beds) fill with water, everything goes green and the roads (largely dirt) turn to bogs. We need the 4wds and access to camps can be tricky. 15 kms takes a good 45 minutes to navigate. There are even frangipani trees and palm trees.
We have radio check each evening (I never knew my foxtrot charlie delta indigo stuff before now) and you have to remember to carry your heavy clunky radio with you everywhere. And in theory have it on. As for phones, the mobile phone network is temperamental at best. So email and skype it is!
We live in a "guest house" like most NGOs, which effectively means its rented by the organization and we have a per night rate. It has 3 bedrooms and a living space above the office with the usual high walls, barbed wire, sleepy smiling security guard or two, and a couple of land cruisers. The kitchen is downstairs in another small building and a lovely smiling Sudanese woman comes and cooks us Fatoor (breakfast) each day at about 11am consisting of beans, eggplant, bread, chilli, and omelet, so the office eats together during the week.
It's hard to realize at times that there is a conflict here – life in town is pretty easy, especially for the aid workers. Although I have seen plenty of trucks of armed men driving through town. Some in uniform, many not. I am gradually learning who these groups are. Sometimes we see men with camels in town and as you drive out of town many more camel herders, and herds of cattle too. What we do see is the frustrations of the work here, some things which should be easy somehow take on a political dimension and become impossible.
Outside of the town are the camps of persons displaced by conflict. 90, 000 or more in the one I visit most regularly. And these people all have their stories and fears. But I know that elsewhere, in the north of Darfur and in the south of this state, it is more tense.. just watch the news, the numbers of military growing, especially north of El Fasher. And here I wonder how long till we too see these changes?
sexta-feira, setembro 15, 2006
1 September 2006, N°37
August 2006 Trends
Deteriorated Situations
Burundi
Tension rose in Bujumbura over government’s uncovering of alleged coup plot; former President Ndayizeye and 8 others charged. Allegations government tortured suspects and claim by 1 plotter coup conceived by authorities fueled international concern; government requested recall of UN envoy after he convened meeting of diplomats to discuss plot. Government prepared 2 laws regulating press and civil society in another perceived attempt to clamp down on dissent. Negotiations between FNL rebels and government on hold ahead of Dar es Salaam regional summit 7 September, where heads of state expected to set agenda for agreement on ceasefire. Demobilisation of non-FNL former combatants and government soldiers expanded to include officer level for first time.
“Former president’s arrest seen as part of pattern of abuse”, IRIN, 25 Aug. 2006.
“Officers in demobilisation for the first time, official says”, IRIN, 21 Aug. 2006.
“Alleged coup plotters tortured”, Human Rights Watch, 4 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°31, Elections in Burundi: A Radical Shake-Up of the Political Landscape, 25 Aug. 2005.
Iran
International Atomic Energy Agency reported Iran continued to enrich small amounts of uranium despite 31 August UN deadline for it to stop. IAEA report opens way for “appropriate measures” under UN Security Council resolution 1696 but UNSC remains divided, with U.S. in support of sanctions, Russia and China against, and UK and France calling for further dialogue. Tehran made several provocative gestures ahead of deadline, as President Ahmadinejad inaugurated new phase of Arak heavy-water reactor 26 August and long-range missile test-fired from submarine in Gulf 27 August. Earlier in month, U.S. said Tehran’s response, which offered “serious talks” but refused to suspend enrichment, to incentive package offered by UNSC P5 and Germany “fell short”. EU foreign policy chief Solana due to meet Iran’s head of national security Larijani early September.
“Bush demands action as Iran snubs UN”, The Guardian, 1 Sept. 2006.
“After starting reactor, Iran fires Gulf missile”, International Herald Tribune, 27 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°51, Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse?, 23 Feb.
Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan)
Worst incident in 50 years as Russian patrol boat reportedly shot dead Japanese fisherman near disputed Southern Kuril islands/Northern Territories. 3 other fishermen taken into Russian custody, 2 released 30 August.
“Russians free Japanese fishermen”, BBC, 30 Aug. 2006.
North Korea
Tensions continued to mount on Korean peninsula after July missile tests and speculation North aiming for nuclear test. Joint U.S.-South Korean annual military exercises started 21 August and led to North threat of “pre-emptive action”. North and South troops exchanged fire across border 1 August; no injuries reported.
“North is capable of a nuclear test, Seoul official says”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Aug. 2006.
“North Korea threatens attack due to war drills”, Reuters, 22 Aug. 2006.
Pakistan
Major Balochistan leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti, killed by security forces 26 August. Violent protests and province-wide strikes in Balochistan and Baloch majority areas of Karachi followed. Curfew imposed on Balochistan’s capital Quetta. Bugti’s killing condemned by all major political parties, including opposition Alliance for Democracy: 21 soldiers and 37 rebels also killed in operation. International attention focused on Pakistan’s failure to rein in jihadis as 22 suspects, mostly UK citizens of Pakistani origin, arrested in UK in alleged plot to blow up transatlantic flights. Pakistani intelligence agencies detained UK citizen in Punjab along with 6 nationals countrywide.
“A death Pakistan can ill afford”, Asia Times Online, 29 Aug. 2006.
“Problems for Pakistan’s president”, International Herald Tribune, 17 Aug. 2006.
“The Pakistan connection: suspicion falls on al-Qaida”, The Guardian, 12 Aug. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.
Sri Lanka
Security situation deteriorated with full-scale military clashes in eastern and northern regions. 200,000 displaced in areas of conflict and hundreds killed. Fighting engulfed predominantly Muslim town of Muttur, forcing 50,000 to flee; casualties included 17 workers of French NGO that Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) later accused security forces of “assassinating”. Air force bombing in Mullaitivy district 14 August reportedly killed dozens of young students; government claimed training camp for young LTTE rebels. Fighting broke out in northern Jaffna peninsula 11 August. In Colombo, LTTE shot dead Tamil deputy head of government peace secretariat Kethesh Loganathan, 12 August. 7 killed in explosion near residence of President Rajapakse 14 August in LTTE attack suspected to have been aimed at Pakistan’s envoy amidst enhanced defence cooperation between Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Clashes over Mavilaru waterway in east continued, despite deal that saw LTTE lift 14 day blockade. Military reported at least 100 killed in operations in northeast Sampur area from 27 August. Monitors from EU states left 1 September after having been ordered out by LTTE in response to EU listing of group as terrorists.
“Sri Lanka blamed in deaths of aid workers”, International Herald Tribune, 30 Aug. 2006.
“Sri Lanka army battles rebels in northeast”, AlertNet, 29 Aug. 2006.
“Beyond euphemism”, The Economist, 17 Aug. 2006.
Sudan
vejam em conflitos emergentes
Taiwan Strait
Both sides stepped up diplomatic war of attrition: China lured Chad to re-establish ties, and continued negotiations with 3 Taiwan allies - Guatemala, Paraguay and Sao Tome & Principe - for oil/gas exploration. Taiwan rallied support in Central America and Solomon Islands, and made 14th attempt at UN membership 10 August when several supporting states wrote to UNSG Annan requesting issue be raised in September General Assembly. Beijing called proposal attempt for Taiwanese independence.
“Gov’t to consider push for U.N. entry as ‘Taiwan’”, China Post, 29 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°42, China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente, 21 Sept. 2005.
Improved Situations
Angola
Peace deal signed with Front for the Liberation of Cabinda Enclave separatists following July ceasefire, but smaller factions refused to sign. Parliament approved amnesty deal for separatists and pledged Cabindan integration into civil service and army.
“Angola parliament approves Cabinda amnesty deal”, Mail & Guardian, 11 Aug. 2006.
"Angola signs deal with Cabindans”, BBC, 1 Aug. 2006.
Lebanon
vejam em conflitos emergentes
Togo
Government signed elections accord with opposition Union of Forces for Change, ending 12-year stalemate. EU restored aid funding, suspended since 1993, after parties agreed to hold 2007 parliamentary elections with loosened voter eligibility requirements.
“Refugees beginning returning home but many still reluctant”, IRIN, 30 Aug. 2006.
“Political agreement aims to end 12-year feud”, IRIN, 21 Aug. 2006.
Uganda
vejam em oportunidades de resolução
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Corsica (France), Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus , DR Congo , Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guyana, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Macedonia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal (Casamance), Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Conflict Risk Alerts
DR Congo
Situation fragile as election process continued. Results of 30 July vote released 20 August, showing regional divide and potential for further unrest: eastern provinces voted for incumbent Kabila, while contenders Bemba, Gizenga and Mobutu strongest in western districts. After no candidate received majority of votes, run-off between Kabila (44.8%) and Bemba (20.03%) scheduled to coincide with provincial elections 29 October, but Kabila pushing for earlier poll. 3-day gun battle in Kinshasa between supporters of Kabila and Bemba before presidential results announced killed 23. EU observers deemed election free and fair but called for greater transparency in vote counting. 7 election officials arrested on allegations of vote-rigging; Supreme Court to give verdict on 8 cases 5 September. 250 EU troops called in as reinforcements to patrol streets before candidates agreed truce 22 August. Parliamentary results expected 4 September. Angola moved troops to border in advance of electoral results and sent 1,700 Katangan Tigers back to country. UPC militia leader Thomas Lubanga charged by ICC with recruiting child soldiers despite calls for wider charges of murder, rape and torture.
“War crime charge for Congo rebel”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2006.
“The results come in with a bang”, The Economist, 24 Aug. 2006.
“Congolese face tense Round 2 of voting”, Christian Science Monitor, 22 Aug. 2006.
Lebanon
Fragile UN-brokered ceasefire commenced 14 August following 34 days of war between Israel and Hizbollah: approximately 1,000 Lebanese and 159 Israelis killed. Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claimed “historic victory”, while Israeli PM Olmert said ceasefire agreement eliminated Hizbollah’s “state within a state”. Amid public criticism, Israeli army chief admitted failures in logistics, operations and command. UNSC Resolution 1701, which led to ceasefire, calls for Hizbollah to move north of Litani river to allow Lebanese army and strengthened UN force (UNIFIL) of 15,000 to deploy to southern Lebanon. Slow response from EU nations over troop contributions reflected concern about UN force’s mandate and rules of engagement, particularly relating to disarmament of Hizbollah. After initial offer of only 200 additional troops (to existing 200 in UNIFIL) France announced would deploy total of 2,000; Italy pledged further 3,000. Israel said would maintain sea and air blockade until full UN force deployed. UNSG Annan embarked on 11-day tour of region to seek compliance with resolution 1701. U.S. $940 million pledged by international donors at Stockholm conference to help rebuild after what PM Sinoira called, an “unjustified war”.
“Lebanon’s uneasy truce grows more fragile”, International Herald Tribune, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Chirac offer of 2,000 troops breaks impasse on Lebanon peacekeepers”, The Guardian, 25 Aug. 2006.
“Lebanon faces new challenges”, ISN, 21 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.
Pakistan
vejam em deterioração das situações
Somalia
Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) further consolidated control over much of south and east, seized coastal towns north of Mogadishu and vowed to eliminate piracy. Transitional Federal Government (TFG), weakened after string of July cabinet resignations, dissolved cabinet in Ethiopian-brokered initiative 7 August and appointed smaller cabinet 2 weeks later. UIC and TFG due to meet in Khartoum for talks 1 September. U.S. and UN called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to end interference in Somalia, threatening sanctions in response to any violation of arms embargo. Ethiopian troop presence reported in Baidoa, Wajid and Galkayo but denied by Addis Ababa. UIC head Aweys rejected IGAD proposals for regional peacekeeping force.
“Somali rivals heading for talks”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2006.
“Somalia’s High Stakes Power Struggle”, Council on Foreign Relations, 7 Aug. 2006.
Sudan
Sudanese military launched strike 29 August on Darfur rebel groups not party to May Darfur Peace Agreement. Reports indicated government offensive drove back rebels from Kulkul 29 August as Khartoum continued to build military presence in North Darfur. UN Security Council voted 31 August to approve force for Darfur with some Chapter VII powers, “inviting” consent from Khartoum. Sudanese approval nonetheless considered prerequisite for deployment; President Bashir continued to reject any UN force for Darfur and Sudan refused to attend UNSC discussions on the issue prior to vote, pointing to plan for its own force of 12,000 new troops. Resolution does authorise existing UNMIS force to provide support to cash-strapped AU force already in Darfur, whose mandate currently expires end September. Minni Minnawi, leader of rebel SLA faction that signed the May peace deal and now fighting alongside government forces, appointed senior assistant to President Bashir. Chronic insecurity continued: UN official Jan Egeland called situation worst since 2004; WFP said 500,000 cut off from food aid. Relations between Khartoum and Chad improved as border opened and diplomatic ties re-established. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels led to agreement for more regional development.
“Shaky Darfur peace at risk as new fighting looms”, New York Times, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Former Darfur rebel leader named presidential assistant”, IRIN, 7 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°39, Darfur’s Fragile Peace Agreement, 20 June 2006.
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Uganda
Government and LRA broke 4-week deadlock in Juba peace talks by signing truce 26 August. Under terms of deal, LRA have 3 weeks to assemble at designated safe zones in South Sudan, protected by SPLA, before proceeding to further talks. Stumbling blocks for further negotiations remain, including status of ICC arrest warrants, security guarantees for LRA leaders and substantial discrepancies between sides’ agendas. Government earlier refused to match 4 August ceasefire declared by LRA leader Kony, instead continuing attacks on LRA and seeking Kinshasa’s approval to attack LRA camps in northeast DRC. Reports indicated Kony might be seeking asylum in CAR.
“Daunting post-conflict challenges in the north”, IRIN, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Uganda: when international justice and internal peace are at odds”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Aug. 2006.
“Talks on hold as rebels demand cessation of hostilities”, IRIN, 10 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°35, A Strategy for Ending Northern Uganda’s Crisis, 11 Jan. 2006.
Deteriorated Situations
Burundi
Tension rose in Bujumbura over government’s uncovering of alleged coup plot; former President Ndayizeye and 8 others charged. Allegations government tortured suspects and claim by 1 plotter coup conceived by authorities fueled international concern; government requested recall of UN envoy after he convened meeting of diplomats to discuss plot. Government prepared 2 laws regulating press and civil society in another perceived attempt to clamp down on dissent. Negotiations between FNL rebels and government on hold ahead of Dar es Salaam regional summit 7 September, where heads of state expected to set agenda for agreement on ceasefire. Demobilisation of non-FNL former combatants and government soldiers expanded to include officer level for first time.
“Former president’s arrest seen as part of pattern of abuse”, IRIN, 25 Aug. 2006.
“Officers in demobilisation for the first time, official says”, IRIN, 21 Aug. 2006.
“Alleged coup plotters tortured”, Human Rights Watch, 4 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°31, Elections in Burundi: A Radical Shake-Up of the Political Landscape, 25 Aug. 2005.
Iran
International Atomic Energy Agency reported Iran continued to enrich small amounts of uranium despite 31 August UN deadline for it to stop. IAEA report opens way for “appropriate measures” under UN Security Council resolution 1696 but UNSC remains divided, with U.S. in support of sanctions, Russia and China against, and UK and France calling for further dialogue. Tehran made several provocative gestures ahead of deadline, as President Ahmadinejad inaugurated new phase of Arak heavy-water reactor 26 August and long-range missile test-fired from submarine in Gulf 27 August. Earlier in month, U.S. said Tehran’s response, which offered “serious talks” but refused to suspend enrichment, to incentive package offered by UNSC P5 and Germany “fell short”. EU foreign policy chief Solana due to meet Iran’s head of national security Larijani early September.
“Bush demands action as Iran snubs UN”, The Guardian, 1 Sept. 2006.
“After starting reactor, Iran fires Gulf missile”, International Herald Tribune, 27 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°51, Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse?, 23 Feb.
Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan)
Worst incident in 50 years as Russian patrol boat reportedly shot dead Japanese fisherman near disputed Southern Kuril islands/Northern Territories. 3 other fishermen taken into Russian custody, 2 released 30 August.
“Russians free Japanese fishermen”, BBC, 30 Aug. 2006.
North Korea
Tensions continued to mount on Korean peninsula after July missile tests and speculation North aiming for nuclear test. Joint U.S.-South Korean annual military exercises started 21 August and led to North threat of “pre-emptive action”. North and South troops exchanged fire across border 1 August; no injuries reported.
“North is capable of a nuclear test, Seoul official says”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Aug. 2006.
“North Korea threatens attack due to war drills”, Reuters, 22 Aug. 2006.
Pakistan
Major Balochistan leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti, killed by security forces 26 August. Violent protests and province-wide strikes in Balochistan and Baloch majority areas of Karachi followed. Curfew imposed on Balochistan’s capital Quetta. Bugti’s killing condemned by all major political parties, including opposition Alliance for Democracy: 21 soldiers and 37 rebels also killed in operation. International attention focused on Pakistan’s failure to rein in jihadis as 22 suspects, mostly UK citizens of Pakistani origin, arrested in UK in alleged plot to blow up transatlantic flights. Pakistani intelligence agencies detained UK citizen in Punjab along with 6 nationals countrywide.
“A death Pakistan can ill afford”, Asia Times Online, 29 Aug. 2006.
“Problems for Pakistan’s president”, International Herald Tribune, 17 Aug. 2006.
“The Pakistan connection: suspicion falls on al-Qaida”, The Guardian, 12 Aug. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.
Sri Lanka
Security situation deteriorated with full-scale military clashes in eastern and northern regions. 200,000 displaced in areas of conflict and hundreds killed. Fighting engulfed predominantly Muslim town of Muttur, forcing 50,000 to flee; casualties included 17 workers of French NGO that Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) later accused security forces of “assassinating”. Air force bombing in Mullaitivy district 14 August reportedly killed dozens of young students; government claimed training camp for young LTTE rebels. Fighting broke out in northern Jaffna peninsula 11 August. In Colombo, LTTE shot dead Tamil deputy head of government peace secretariat Kethesh Loganathan, 12 August. 7 killed in explosion near residence of President Rajapakse 14 August in LTTE attack suspected to have been aimed at Pakistan’s envoy amidst enhanced defence cooperation between Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Clashes over Mavilaru waterway in east continued, despite deal that saw LTTE lift 14 day blockade. Military reported at least 100 killed in operations in northeast Sampur area from 27 August. Monitors from EU states left 1 September after having been ordered out by LTTE in response to EU listing of group as terrorists.
“Sri Lanka blamed in deaths of aid workers”, International Herald Tribune, 30 Aug. 2006.
“Sri Lanka army battles rebels in northeast”, AlertNet, 29 Aug. 2006.
“Beyond euphemism”, The Economist, 17 Aug. 2006.
Sudan
vejam em conflitos emergentes
Taiwan Strait
Both sides stepped up diplomatic war of attrition: China lured Chad to re-establish ties, and continued negotiations with 3 Taiwan allies - Guatemala, Paraguay and Sao Tome & Principe - for oil/gas exploration. Taiwan rallied support in Central America and Solomon Islands, and made 14th attempt at UN membership 10 August when several supporting states wrote to UNSG Annan requesting issue be raised in September General Assembly. Beijing called proposal attempt for Taiwanese independence.
“Gov’t to consider push for U.N. entry as ‘Taiwan’”, China Post, 29 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°42, China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente, 21 Sept. 2005.
Improved Situations
Angola
Peace deal signed with Front for the Liberation of Cabinda Enclave separatists following July ceasefire, but smaller factions refused to sign. Parliament approved amnesty deal for separatists and pledged Cabindan integration into civil service and army.
“Angola parliament approves Cabinda amnesty deal”, Mail & Guardian, 11 Aug. 2006.
"Angola signs deal with Cabindans”, BBC, 1 Aug. 2006.
Lebanon
vejam em conflitos emergentes
Togo
Government signed elections accord with opposition Union of Forces for Change, ending 12-year stalemate. EU restored aid funding, suspended since 1993, after parties agreed to hold 2007 parliamentary elections with loosened voter eligibility requirements.
“Refugees beginning returning home but many still reluctant”, IRIN, 30 Aug. 2006.
“Political agreement aims to end 12-year feud”, IRIN, 21 Aug. 2006.
Uganda
vejam em oportunidades de resolução
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Corsica (France), Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus , DR Congo , Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guyana, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Macedonia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal (Casamance), Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Conflict Risk Alerts
DR Congo
Situation fragile as election process continued. Results of 30 July vote released 20 August, showing regional divide and potential for further unrest: eastern provinces voted for incumbent Kabila, while contenders Bemba, Gizenga and Mobutu strongest in western districts. After no candidate received majority of votes, run-off between Kabila (44.8%) and Bemba (20.03%) scheduled to coincide with provincial elections 29 October, but Kabila pushing for earlier poll. 3-day gun battle in Kinshasa between supporters of Kabila and Bemba before presidential results announced killed 23. EU observers deemed election free and fair but called for greater transparency in vote counting. 7 election officials arrested on allegations of vote-rigging; Supreme Court to give verdict on 8 cases 5 September. 250 EU troops called in as reinforcements to patrol streets before candidates agreed truce 22 August. Parliamentary results expected 4 September. Angola moved troops to border in advance of electoral results and sent 1,700 Katangan Tigers back to country. UPC militia leader Thomas Lubanga charged by ICC with recruiting child soldiers despite calls for wider charges of murder, rape and torture.
“War crime charge for Congo rebel”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2006.
“The results come in with a bang”, The Economist, 24 Aug. 2006.
“Congolese face tense Round 2 of voting”, Christian Science Monitor, 22 Aug. 2006.
Lebanon
Fragile UN-brokered ceasefire commenced 14 August following 34 days of war between Israel and Hizbollah: approximately 1,000 Lebanese and 159 Israelis killed. Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claimed “historic victory”, while Israeli PM Olmert said ceasefire agreement eliminated Hizbollah’s “state within a state”. Amid public criticism, Israeli army chief admitted failures in logistics, operations and command. UNSC Resolution 1701, which led to ceasefire, calls for Hizbollah to move north of Litani river to allow Lebanese army and strengthened UN force (UNIFIL) of 15,000 to deploy to southern Lebanon. Slow response from EU nations over troop contributions reflected concern about UN force’s mandate and rules of engagement, particularly relating to disarmament of Hizbollah. After initial offer of only 200 additional troops (to existing 200 in UNIFIL) France announced would deploy total of 2,000; Italy pledged further 3,000. Israel said would maintain sea and air blockade until full UN force deployed. UNSG Annan embarked on 11-day tour of region to seek compliance with resolution 1701. U.S. $940 million pledged by international donors at Stockholm conference to help rebuild after what PM Sinoira called, an “unjustified war”.
“Lebanon’s uneasy truce grows more fragile”, International Herald Tribune, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Chirac offer of 2,000 troops breaks impasse on Lebanon peacekeepers”, The Guardian, 25 Aug. 2006.
“Lebanon faces new challenges”, ISN, 21 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.
Pakistan
vejam em deterioração das situações
Somalia
Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) further consolidated control over much of south and east, seized coastal towns north of Mogadishu and vowed to eliminate piracy. Transitional Federal Government (TFG), weakened after string of July cabinet resignations, dissolved cabinet in Ethiopian-brokered initiative 7 August and appointed smaller cabinet 2 weeks later. UIC and TFG due to meet in Khartoum for talks 1 September. U.S. and UN called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to end interference in Somalia, threatening sanctions in response to any violation of arms embargo. Ethiopian troop presence reported in Baidoa, Wajid and Galkayo but denied by Addis Ababa. UIC head Aweys rejected IGAD proposals for regional peacekeeping force.
“Somali rivals heading for talks”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2006.
“Somalia’s High Stakes Power Struggle”, Council on Foreign Relations, 7 Aug. 2006.
Sudan
Sudanese military launched strike 29 August on Darfur rebel groups not party to May Darfur Peace Agreement. Reports indicated government offensive drove back rebels from Kulkul 29 August as Khartoum continued to build military presence in North Darfur. UN Security Council voted 31 August to approve force for Darfur with some Chapter VII powers, “inviting” consent from Khartoum. Sudanese approval nonetheless considered prerequisite for deployment; President Bashir continued to reject any UN force for Darfur and Sudan refused to attend UNSC discussions on the issue prior to vote, pointing to plan for its own force of 12,000 new troops. Resolution does authorise existing UNMIS force to provide support to cash-strapped AU force already in Darfur, whose mandate currently expires end September. Minni Minnawi, leader of rebel SLA faction that signed the May peace deal and now fighting alongside government forces, appointed senior assistant to President Bashir. Chronic insecurity continued: UN official Jan Egeland called situation worst since 2004; WFP said 500,000 cut off from food aid. Relations between Khartoum and Chad improved as border opened and diplomatic ties re-established. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels led to agreement for more regional development.
“Shaky Darfur peace at risk as new fighting looms”, New York Times, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Former Darfur rebel leader named presidential assistant”, IRIN, 7 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°39, Darfur’s Fragile Peace Agreement, 20 June 2006.
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Uganda
Government and LRA broke 4-week deadlock in Juba peace talks by signing truce 26 August. Under terms of deal, LRA have 3 weeks to assemble at designated safe zones in South Sudan, protected by SPLA, before proceeding to further talks. Stumbling blocks for further negotiations remain, including status of ICC arrest warrants, security guarantees for LRA leaders and substantial discrepancies between sides’ agendas. Government earlier refused to match 4 August ceasefire declared by LRA leader Kony, instead continuing attacks on LRA and seeking Kinshasa’s approval to attack LRA camps in northeast DRC. Reports indicated Kony might be seeking asylum in CAR.
“Daunting post-conflict challenges in the north”, IRIN, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Uganda: when international justice and internal peace are at odds”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Aug. 2006.
“Talks on hold as rebels demand cessation of hostilities”, IRIN, 10 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°35, A Strategy for Ending Northern Uganda’s Crisis, 11 Jan. 2006.
O estado do mundo
Boas para quem continua a aparecer! Vamos iniciar uma nova fase.
Através da Crisis Watch, iremos mostrar mensalmente o estado do mundo. Ou como eles dizem:
summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin);
assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged;
alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be both); and
summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month.
CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our nearly 120 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 50 of the situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to crisiswatch@crisisgroup.org.
Através da Crisis Watch, iremos mostrar mensalmente o estado do mundo. Ou como eles dizem:
summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin);
assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged;
alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be both); and
summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month.
CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our nearly 120 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 50 of the situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to crisiswatch@crisisgroup.org.
quinta-feira, agosto 31, 2006
Encontro de Psiquiatria de Catástrofe e Intervenção na Crise
Dia 21 de Setembro de 2006, Quinta-feira
08.30 Abertura do Secretariado
09.00 Sessão de Abertura
10.00 Conferência Inaugural
11.00 Ameaças de Catástrofe
* Terrorismo - Juiz Conselheiro Santos Cabral
* A Gripe das Aves – Dra. Graça Freitas – DGS - Lisboa
* Catástrofes Naturais - Prof. Doutor Jorge Dinis – U.Coimbra
Relator - Prof. Doutor Vaz Serra - HUC
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Mateus Cardoso
13.00 Almoço
14:00 - O Papel dos Media
* Debate com profissionais dos media – João Figueira (U. Coimbra, DN)/ Dr. Luís Bernardo – Lisboa/Dr. Adelino Gomes - Lisboa
Moderador – Dr.Luís Gamito (Lisboa)
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Lopes Henriques
15:45 – Catástrofes em Portugal
* Açores – Dr. José Decq Mota - Açores
* Entre-os-Rios – Dr. Luís Pimentel – ARS Norte - Porto
* Acidentes de Viação – Major Lourenço da Silva (BT - GNR)
* Incêndios – Coronel Carlos Gonçalves (Protecção Civil de Coimbra)
Relator – Dr. Allen Gomes - Coimbra
Presidente da Mesa – Contra Almirante Médico Naval Valdemar Porto
18.00 - Workshops
Em opção:
* Crianças Maltratadas – Prof. Doutora Isabel Alberto - U.Coimbra
ou
* Da Crise Individual à Catástrofe Colectiva – Prof. Doutor Jacques Houart - U.Coimbra
Dia 22 de Setembro de 2006, Sexta-feira
08.30 Workshops
Em opção:
* Gestão de Conflitos em Situações de Catástrofe – Dr. José Adriano Fernandes - Porto
ou
* Experiência de um Militar num País em Crise –Major General Martins Ferreira – Brigada de Intervenção
10.30 Catástrofes Internacionais
* Madrid (11/Março)– Francisco Orengo-Garcia
* Israel – Ilan Kutz
* Guerras – Major General Pezarat Correia
* Refugiados – Dr.ª Maria Rosário Farmhouse - Lisboa
Relator – Dr. José Adriano Fernandes - Porto
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Nunes Marques
13.00 – Almoço
14:00– Filme
* “O Acompanhamento Psicológico das Forças da GNR no Iraque”
Dr. Vítor Almeida – Hospital de Viseu
14.45 Intervenção Psiquiátrica na Crise
* Conferência - Intervenção do Serviço de Saúde Militar nas Operações de Resposta a Crises - Coronel Médico Abílio Gomes
15:30 – Antes da Crise
* Como sobreviveram emocionalmente os presos políticos em Portugal? (que factores de protecção?) – Dr. Louzã Henriques - Coimbra
* Metodologia da Preparação Psicológica dos Militares Portugueses em Missões Internacionais.- Major Pinto Silva – CPAE (Centro de Psic. Aplicada do Exército)
* Factores predictores de P.T.S.D. e critérios de selecção em profissões de actuação na crise. – Prof. Doutora Ângela Maia (Universidade do Minho).
Relator – Dra. Fernanda Mendes – Açores
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Ribeiro da Silva
17.00 Workshops
Em opção:
* Gripe das Aves. Que prevenção? – Dr. José Manuel Tereso - Coimbra
ou
* Grupos Terapêuticos em Mulheres Vítimas de Violência - Dr. Francisco Orengo-Garcia (Madrid)
Dia 23 de Setembro de 2006, Sábado
09.00 – Durante a Crise
* Psicologia das multidões – a gestão das massas durante a crise – Fernando Passos -PSP
* Como actuar no terreno (incidentes críticos) - INEM
* Como actuar no terreno (grandes catástrofes) – Dr. José Adriano Fernandes
Relator – Dr. Afonso de Albuquerque - Lisboa
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico João Pedro Oliveira
10.45 – No depois (Após o trauma)
* Intervenções terapêuticas – Dra. Luísa Sales - Coimbra
* Trauma vicariante– um testemunho – Com Manuel Velloso
* Como sobrevive emocionalmente um técnico após intervenções na crise - Dr. Fernando Nobre -AMI
Relator – Prof. Doutor Pio de Abreu - Coimbra
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Silveira Sérgio
12.30 – Conferência Final
13.00 – Sessão de encerramento - Principais Conclusões
08.30 Abertura do Secretariado
09.00 Sessão de Abertura
10.00 Conferência Inaugural
11.00 Ameaças de Catástrofe
* Terrorismo - Juiz Conselheiro Santos Cabral
* A Gripe das Aves – Dra. Graça Freitas – DGS - Lisboa
* Catástrofes Naturais - Prof. Doutor Jorge Dinis – U.Coimbra
Relator - Prof. Doutor Vaz Serra - HUC
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Mateus Cardoso
13.00 Almoço
14:00 - O Papel dos Media
* Debate com profissionais dos media – João Figueira (U. Coimbra, DN)/ Dr. Luís Bernardo – Lisboa/Dr. Adelino Gomes - Lisboa
Moderador – Dr.Luís Gamito (Lisboa)
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Lopes Henriques
15:45 – Catástrofes em Portugal
* Açores – Dr. José Decq Mota - Açores
* Entre-os-Rios – Dr. Luís Pimentel – ARS Norte - Porto
* Acidentes de Viação – Major Lourenço da Silva (BT - GNR)
* Incêndios – Coronel Carlos Gonçalves (Protecção Civil de Coimbra)
Relator – Dr. Allen Gomes - Coimbra
Presidente da Mesa – Contra Almirante Médico Naval Valdemar Porto
18.00 - Workshops
Em opção:
* Crianças Maltratadas – Prof. Doutora Isabel Alberto - U.Coimbra
ou
* Da Crise Individual à Catástrofe Colectiva – Prof. Doutor Jacques Houart - U.Coimbra
Dia 22 de Setembro de 2006, Sexta-feira
08.30 Workshops
Em opção:
* Gestão de Conflitos em Situações de Catástrofe – Dr. José Adriano Fernandes - Porto
ou
* Experiência de um Militar num País em Crise –Major General Martins Ferreira – Brigada de Intervenção
10.30 Catástrofes Internacionais
* Madrid (11/Março)– Francisco Orengo-Garcia
* Israel – Ilan Kutz
* Guerras – Major General Pezarat Correia
* Refugiados – Dr.ª Maria Rosário Farmhouse - Lisboa
Relator – Dr. José Adriano Fernandes - Porto
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Nunes Marques
13.00 – Almoço
14:00– Filme
* “O Acompanhamento Psicológico das Forças da GNR no Iraque”
Dr. Vítor Almeida – Hospital de Viseu
14.45 Intervenção Psiquiátrica na Crise
* Conferência - Intervenção do Serviço de Saúde Militar nas Operações de Resposta a Crises - Coronel Médico Abílio Gomes
15:30 – Antes da Crise
* Como sobreviveram emocionalmente os presos políticos em Portugal? (que factores de protecção?) – Dr. Louzã Henriques - Coimbra
* Metodologia da Preparação Psicológica dos Militares Portugueses em Missões Internacionais.- Major Pinto Silva – CPAE (Centro de Psic. Aplicada do Exército)
* Factores predictores de P.T.S.D. e critérios de selecção em profissões de actuação na crise. – Prof. Doutora Ângela Maia (Universidade do Minho).
Relator – Dra. Fernanda Mendes – Açores
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Ribeiro da Silva
17.00 Workshops
Em opção:
* Gripe das Aves. Que prevenção? – Dr. José Manuel Tereso - Coimbra
ou
* Grupos Terapêuticos em Mulheres Vítimas de Violência - Dr. Francisco Orengo-Garcia (Madrid)
Dia 23 de Setembro de 2006, Sábado
09.00 – Durante a Crise
* Psicologia das multidões – a gestão das massas durante a crise – Fernando Passos -PSP
* Como actuar no terreno (incidentes críticos) - INEM
* Como actuar no terreno (grandes catástrofes) – Dr. José Adriano Fernandes
Relator – Dr. Afonso de Albuquerque - Lisboa
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico João Pedro Oliveira
10.45 – No depois (Após o trauma)
* Intervenções terapêuticas – Dra. Luísa Sales - Coimbra
* Trauma vicariante– um testemunho – Com Manuel Velloso
* Como sobrevive emocionalmente um técnico após intervenções na crise - Dr. Fernando Nobre -AMI
Relator – Prof. Doutor Pio de Abreu - Coimbra
Presidente da Mesa – Major General Médico Silveira Sérgio
12.30 – Conferência Final
13.00 – Sessão de encerramento - Principais Conclusões
quarta-feira, agosto 30, 2006
Blogs from dusty muddy darfur....
Dear friends,
I have now been in Darfur about 4 weeks and I am definitely happy to be here. I love my work, I love the people and believe what we are doing is worthwhile, despite the frustrating context and the bigger political situation. One friend commented a few days ago that if we can keep things in stasis this is actually an achievement, but I would like to think we do more than that.
We visited Kalma camp last week, an enormous sprawling camp of tents and dust and mud and mud brick huts and tattered plastic sheeting which took us a good forty minutes of dusty indistinguishable roads to get to. NGOs here estimate 95,000 people in the camp alone. There is even market as you drive in, women selling vegetables, donkeys pulling carts, beautiful children waving at the car, goats climbing around, women in bright cloth carrying posts on their heads, men in white jalabeyas and white turbans and NGO flags flying (somewhat tattered) from some of the buildings. Kalma has also recently been in the news - see http://www.theirc.org/news/latest/increased-sexual-assaults.html to give you some idea of how bad things are, for people who are displaced, especially the women.
At night I try to run along the road near the airport with friends and climb the hill overlooking Nyala. There are two camps close to town you can see from the top of the hill – blue and white plastic and tents distinguish them from the mud brick and wood and square buildings and tukuls which make up the town. I am gradually learning the names, who runs them, what NGOs are involved, the problems each faces.
We also went to Kass, where the IDPs live in the town as part of the host community. Its about 2 hours on a theoretically tarmac road so full of pot holes that at times the cars would head of on dirt roads carved next to it and through the mud as it was more passable. We went with cars form two other agencies (minimum convoy of 3 according to UN security requirements) The whole trip was really green, passing herds (are they called herds?) of camels, and small villages made of round tukuls with conical roofs and over wadis filled with water, and Kids playing in mud puddles, and women on donkeys, and buses with people on the roof, sometimes army with guns, other times passengers on luggage. Kass is much smaller than Nyala but we arrived on market day and drove past huge tarpaulins spread with sun drying tomatoes and Okra. No mobile reception, no tarmac, and no UN presence except from WFP.
I have now been in Darfur about 4 weeks and I am definitely happy to be here. I love my work, I love the people and believe what we are doing is worthwhile, despite the frustrating context and the bigger political situation. One friend commented a few days ago that if we can keep things in stasis this is actually an achievement, but I would like to think we do more than that.
We visited Kalma camp last week, an enormous sprawling camp of tents and dust and mud and mud brick huts and tattered plastic sheeting which took us a good forty minutes of dusty indistinguishable roads to get to. NGOs here estimate 95,000 people in the camp alone. There is even market as you drive in, women selling vegetables, donkeys pulling carts, beautiful children waving at the car, goats climbing around, women in bright cloth carrying posts on their heads, men in white jalabeyas and white turbans and NGO flags flying (somewhat tattered) from some of the buildings. Kalma has also recently been in the news - see http://www.theirc.org/news/latest/increased-sexual-assaults.html to give you some idea of how bad things are, for people who are displaced, especially the women.
At night I try to run along the road near the airport with friends and climb the hill overlooking Nyala. There are two camps close to town you can see from the top of the hill – blue and white plastic and tents distinguish them from the mud brick and wood and square buildings and tukuls which make up the town. I am gradually learning the names, who runs them, what NGOs are involved, the problems each faces.
We also went to Kass, where the IDPs live in the town as part of the host community. Its about 2 hours on a theoretically tarmac road so full of pot holes that at times the cars would head of on dirt roads carved next to it and through the mud as it was more passable. We went with cars form two other agencies (minimum convoy of 3 according to UN security requirements) The whole trip was really green, passing herds (are they called herds?) of camels, and small villages made of round tukuls with conical roofs and over wadis filled with water, and Kids playing in mud puddles, and women on donkeys, and buses with people on the roof, sometimes army with guns, other times passengers on luggage. Kass is much smaller than Nyala but we arrived on market day and drove past huge tarpaulins spread with sun drying tomatoes and Okra. No mobile reception, no tarmac, and no UN presence except from WFP.
terça-feira, agosto 15, 2006
On a Red Cross Mission of Mercy when Israeli Air Force came Calling
On a Red Cross Mission of Mercy when Israeli Air Force came Calling
ICH -- Robert Fisk-- It was supposed to be a routine trip across the Lebanese killing fields for the brave men and women of the International Red Cross. Sylvie Thoral was the "team leader" of our two vehicles, a 38-year-old Frenchwoman with dark brown hair and eyes like steel. The Israelis had been informed and had given what the ICRC likes to call its "green light" to the route. And, of course, we almost died.
ICH -- Robert Fisk-- It was supposed to be a routine trip across the Lebanese killing fields for the brave men and women of the International Red Cross. Sylvie Thoral was the "team leader" of our two vehicles, a 38-year-old Frenchwoman with dark brown hair and eyes like steel. The Israelis had been informed and had given what the ICRC likes to call its "green light" to the route. And, of course, we almost died.
Trusting the Israeli army and air force, which are breaking the Geneva Conventions almost every day, is a dodgy business.
Their planes have already attacked - against all the conventions - the civil defence headquarters in Tyre, killing 20 refugees. They have twice attacked truckloads of refugees whom they themselves had ordered from their villages.
They have already attacked two Lebanese Red Cross ambulances in Qana, killing two of the three wounded patients inside and injuring all the crew - a clear and apparently deliberate breach of Chapter IV, Article 24 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions.
But the ICRC must put its trust in the Israeli military and so off we sped from southern Lebanon for Jezzine to the sound of gunfire, under the crumbling battlements of the crusader castle at Beaufort, through the ghostly, shattered streets of Nabatiyeh, bomb craters and crushed buildings on each side of us.
To cross the Litani river, we had to drive through the water, listening for the howl of airplane engines, one eye on the road, one on the sky. Sylvie and her comrades - Christophe Grange from France, Claire Gasser from Switzerland, Saidi Hachemi from Algeria and two Lebanese colleagues, Beshara Hanna and Edmund Khoury - drove in silence.
There were fresh bomb craters on the highway north of Nabatiyeh - the attacks had come only a few hours earlier, a fact we should have thought more about. Pieces of ordnance littered the roads, shards of wicked shrapnel, huge chunks of concrete. But we had had that all-important "green light" from Tel Aviv.
The ICRC teams may be the only saviours on the highways of southern Lebanon - their reticence in criticising anyone, including the Israelis and Hizbollah is a silence worthy of angels - although their work can attack their emotions as surely as an air strike. Only a day earlier, they had driven to the village of Aiteroun scarcely a mile from the Israeli army's disastrous assault on Bint Jbeil. In each "abandoned"
village on the way, a woman would appear, then a child and then more women and the elderly, all desperate to leave.
There were perhaps 3,000 of them and, last night, Sylvie Thoral was trying to arrange permission for an evacuation convoy. The Israelis are promising the Lebanese much worse than the punishment they have already received - well over 400 Lebanese civilians dead - for Hizbollah's killing of three Israeli soldiers and the capture of two others. But still the Israelis have suggested no "green light" for Aiteroun.
"They were begging us to take them with us and we had no ability to do that," Saidi says with deep emotion. "Their eyes were filled with tears."
ICRC workers in Lebanon travel without flak jackets or helmets - their un-militarised status is something they are proud of - and driving with them in the same condition was an oddly moving experience.
They live - unlike the Israelis and their Hizbollah antagonists - by the Geneva Conventions. They believe in them when all others break the rules. But yesterday, when we reached the town of Jarjooaa, the ICRC in Beirut told us to turn back. The Israelis were bombing the road to the north and so we gingerly reversed our cars and started back down the hills to Arab Selim. The highway was empty and we had almost reached the bottom of a small valley.
I was reflecting on a conversation I had just had on my mobile phone with Patrick Cockburn, The Independent's correspondent who has just left Baghdad. Our guardian angels were working so hard, he said, that he was fearful they would form a trade union and go on strike.
That's when five vast, brown, dead fingers of smoke shot into the sky in front of us, an Israeli air-dropped bomb that exploded on the road scarcely 80 metres away with the kind of "c-crack" that comic books express so accurately, followed by the scream of a jet. If we had driven just 25 seconds faster down that road, we would all be dead.
So we retreated once more to Jarjooaa and parked under the balcony of a house where two women and three children were watching us, waving and smiling.
Sylvie was silent but I could see the rage on her face. The Israelis, it seemed, had made an "error". They had misread the route - or the number - of our little convoy. "How can we work like this? How on earth can we do our work?" Sylvie asked with a mixture of anger and frustration. On all the roads yesterday, I saw only three men whom I suspect were Hizbollah - no respecters of the Geneva Conventions they - driving at high speed in a battered Volvo. They can cross the rivers of Lebanon at
will - just as we did - by circling the bomb craters and crossing the rivers. So what was the point in blowing up 46 of Lebanon's road bridges?
An old man approached us carrying a silver tray of glasses and a pot of scalding tea. Generous to the end, under constant air attack, these fearful Lebanese were offering us their traditional hospitality even now, as the jets wheeled in the sky above us. They asked us in to the house they had refused to leave and I realised then that these kind Lebanese people - unarmed, unconnected to Hizbollah - were the real resistance here. The men and women who will ultimately save Lebanon.
But before we abandoned our journey and before Sylvie and her team and I set off back to their base in the far and dangerous south of Lebanon, a man carrying a bag of vegetables walked up to Beshara Hanna. "Please move your cars away from my home," he said. "You make it dangerous for us all."
And the shame of this shook me at once. The Israeli attack on the Qana ambulances - their missiles plunging through the red crosses on the roofs - had contaminated even our own vehicles. He was just one man. But for him, the Israelis had turned the Red Cross - the symbol of hope on our roofs and the sides of our vehicles - into a symbol of danger and fear.
The laws of war
The laws of war, as the Geneva Conventions are sometimes known, often may seem like a lesson in absurdity. But for centuries countries have adhered to central principles of combat.
At the start of this conflict, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour said: "Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians."
The rules of war state:
* Wars should be limited to achieving the political goals that started the war (and should not include unnecessary destruction).
* Wars should be ended as quickly as possible.
* People and property should be protected against unnecessary destruction and hardship.
The laws are meant to :
* Protect both combatants and non-combatants from unnecessary suffering.
* Safeguard human rights of those who fall into the hands of the enemy: prisoners of war, the wounded, the sick and civilians.
* Prohibit deliberate attacks on civilians. But no war crime is committed if a bomb mistakenly hits a residential area.
* Combatants that use civilians or property as shields are guilty of violations of laws of war.
© 2006 Independent News and Media Limited
ICH -- Robert Fisk-- It was supposed to be a routine trip across the Lebanese killing fields for the brave men and women of the International Red Cross. Sylvie Thoral was the "team leader" of our two vehicles, a 38-year-old Frenchwoman with dark brown hair and eyes like steel. The Israelis had been informed and had given what the ICRC likes to call its "green light" to the route. And, of course, we almost died.
ICH -- Robert Fisk-- It was supposed to be a routine trip across the Lebanese killing fields for the brave men and women of the International Red Cross. Sylvie Thoral was the "team leader" of our two vehicles, a 38-year-old Frenchwoman with dark brown hair and eyes like steel. The Israelis had been informed and had given what the ICRC likes to call its "green light" to the route. And, of course, we almost died.
Trusting the Israeli army and air force, which are breaking the Geneva Conventions almost every day, is a dodgy business.
Their planes have already attacked - against all the conventions - the civil defence headquarters in Tyre, killing 20 refugees. They have twice attacked truckloads of refugees whom they themselves had ordered from their villages.
They have already attacked two Lebanese Red Cross ambulances in Qana, killing two of the three wounded patients inside and injuring all the crew - a clear and apparently deliberate breach of Chapter IV, Article 24 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions.
But the ICRC must put its trust in the Israeli military and so off we sped from southern Lebanon for Jezzine to the sound of gunfire, under the crumbling battlements of the crusader castle at Beaufort, through the ghostly, shattered streets of Nabatiyeh, bomb craters and crushed buildings on each side of us.
To cross the Litani river, we had to drive through the water, listening for the howl of airplane engines, one eye on the road, one on the sky. Sylvie and her comrades - Christophe Grange from France, Claire Gasser from Switzerland, Saidi Hachemi from Algeria and two Lebanese colleagues, Beshara Hanna and Edmund Khoury - drove in silence.
There were fresh bomb craters on the highway north of Nabatiyeh - the attacks had come only a few hours earlier, a fact we should have thought more about. Pieces of ordnance littered the roads, shards of wicked shrapnel, huge chunks of concrete. But we had had that all-important "green light" from Tel Aviv.
The ICRC teams may be the only saviours on the highways of southern Lebanon - their reticence in criticising anyone, including the Israelis and Hizbollah is a silence worthy of angels - although their work can attack their emotions as surely as an air strike. Only a day earlier, they had driven to the village of Aiteroun scarcely a mile from the Israeli army's disastrous assault on Bint Jbeil. In each "abandoned"
village on the way, a woman would appear, then a child and then more women and the elderly, all desperate to leave.
There were perhaps 3,000 of them and, last night, Sylvie Thoral was trying to arrange permission for an evacuation convoy. The Israelis are promising the Lebanese much worse than the punishment they have already received - well over 400 Lebanese civilians dead - for Hizbollah's killing of three Israeli soldiers and the capture of two others. But still the Israelis have suggested no "green light" for Aiteroun.
"They were begging us to take them with us and we had no ability to do that," Saidi says with deep emotion. "Their eyes were filled with tears."
ICRC workers in Lebanon travel without flak jackets or helmets - their un-militarised status is something they are proud of - and driving with them in the same condition was an oddly moving experience.
They live - unlike the Israelis and their Hizbollah antagonists - by the Geneva Conventions. They believe in them when all others break the rules. But yesterday, when we reached the town of Jarjooaa, the ICRC in Beirut told us to turn back. The Israelis were bombing the road to the north and so we gingerly reversed our cars and started back down the hills to Arab Selim. The highway was empty and we had almost reached the bottom of a small valley.
I was reflecting on a conversation I had just had on my mobile phone with Patrick Cockburn, The Independent's correspondent who has just left Baghdad. Our guardian angels were working so hard, he said, that he was fearful they would form a trade union and go on strike.
That's when five vast, brown, dead fingers of smoke shot into the sky in front of us, an Israeli air-dropped bomb that exploded on the road scarcely 80 metres away with the kind of "c-crack" that comic books express so accurately, followed by the scream of a jet. If we had driven just 25 seconds faster down that road, we would all be dead.
So we retreated once more to Jarjooaa and parked under the balcony of a house where two women and three children were watching us, waving and smiling.
Sylvie was silent but I could see the rage on her face. The Israelis, it seemed, had made an "error". They had misread the route - or the number - of our little convoy. "How can we work like this? How on earth can we do our work?" Sylvie asked with a mixture of anger and frustration. On all the roads yesterday, I saw only three men whom I suspect were Hizbollah - no respecters of the Geneva Conventions they - driving at high speed in a battered Volvo. They can cross the rivers of Lebanon at
will - just as we did - by circling the bomb craters and crossing the rivers. So what was the point in blowing up 46 of Lebanon's road bridges?
An old man approached us carrying a silver tray of glasses and a pot of scalding tea. Generous to the end, under constant air attack, these fearful Lebanese were offering us their traditional hospitality even now, as the jets wheeled in the sky above us. They asked us in to the house they had refused to leave and I realised then that these kind Lebanese people - unarmed, unconnected to Hizbollah - were the real resistance here. The men and women who will ultimately save Lebanon.
But before we abandoned our journey and before Sylvie and her team and I set off back to their base in the far and dangerous south of Lebanon, a man carrying a bag of vegetables walked up to Beshara Hanna. "Please move your cars away from my home," he said. "You make it dangerous for us all."
And the shame of this shook me at once. The Israeli attack on the Qana ambulances - their missiles plunging through the red crosses on the roofs - had contaminated even our own vehicles. He was just one man. But for him, the Israelis had turned the Red Cross - the symbol of hope on our roofs and the sides of our vehicles - into a symbol of danger and fear.
The laws of war
The laws of war, as the Geneva Conventions are sometimes known, often may seem like a lesson in absurdity. But for centuries countries have adhered to central principles of combat.
At the start of this conflict, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour said: "Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians."
The rules of war state:
* Wars should be limited to achieving the political goals that started the war (and should not include unnecessary destruction).
* Wars should be ended as quickly as possible.
* People and property should be protected against unnecessary destruction and hardship.
The laws are meant to :
* Protect both combatants and non-combatants from unnecessary suffering.
* Safeguard human rights of those who fall into the hands of the enemy: prisoners of war, the wounded, the sick and civilians.
* Prohibit deliberate attacks on civilians. But no war crime is committed if a bomb mistakenly hits a residential area.
* Combatants that use civilians or property as shields are guilty of violations of laws of war.
© 2006 Independent News and Media Limited
terça-feira, julho 04, 2006
Pós graduação "Estratégias e Intervenções em situações de crise e emergência
O Centro de Estudos de Saúde Mental da Escola Superior de Saúde de Portalegre, vai levar a cabo a realização de um Curso de Pós- Graduação intitulado Estratégias e Intervenções em Situações de Crise e Emergência.
Tendo como publico alvo Agentes de Protecção Civil, Tecnicos de Saúde e todos aqueles que de forma directa ou indirecta estão envolvidos em situações de Crise e Emergência. Esta será uma excelente oportunidade, no que diz respeito ao desenvolvimento de competências nesta área de intervenção.
O Programa do Curso de Pós Graduação é enviado em Anexo. Qualquer contacto ou esclarecimento adicional poderá ser feito junto do Secretariado da Escola Superior de Saúde de Portalegre (Telf-245300430), pela página web da Referida Escola ou restantes contactos presentes na brochura .
Duração | Coordenação do Curso | ||
quinta-feira, maio 18, 2006
ASSOCIAÇÃO RARÍSSIMAS LANÇA JORNADAS SOBRE DOENÇAS RARAS
Associação Nacional de Doenças Mentais e Raras organiza, a 23 e 24 deste mês, as I Jornadas Sobre Doenças Raras - "Doenças Raras de A a Z". A iniciativa é direccionada a profissionais, técnicos e estudantes da área da saúde e terá lugar no auditório da Escola Superior de Tecnologias da Saúde de Lisboa (Parque das Nações).
Mais informações com:
Mais informações com:Tel: 210 970 647 Móvel: 913 469 471
e-mail: rbm@belodemorais.com.pt
Tel: 210 970 648 Móvel: 913 469 472
e-mail:
quarta-feira, maio 17, 2006
Colóquio Internacional sobre Trauma e Medicina Humanitária
http://iscte.pt/~apad/risco
Espírito de Missão
ISCTE, 1-2 de Junho de 2006
Auditório Afonso de Barros
Tem aumentado nos últimos anos o número de intervenções humanitárias governamentais e não-governamentais portuguesas no mundo, acompanhando uma tendência internacional que parece manter-se no futuro próximo.
Face às guerras, às catástrofes naturais e outros fenómenos de dimensão trágica ocorridos tanto nos países pobres como nos mais desenvolvidos, multiplicam-se os apelos de envolvimento urgente de organizações de apoio humanitário. A pressão para agir num quadro operacional institucionalizado é tal que raramente permite pausas para uma reflexão crítica e auto-crítica. Os resultados das intervenções humanitárias nem sempre são avaliados de outra forma que não nos termos mais empíricos e instrumentais.
A coordenação do Mestrado Risco, Trauma e Sociedade do ISCTE organiza um colóquio internacional para reunir os que, directa e indirectamente, se interessam por Medicina Humanitária e para promover uma reflexão crítica interdisciplinar sobre os sentidos éticos, estratégicos, médicos e civilizacionais das actuais missões em que esta actividade é praticada.
O Mestrado “Risco, Trauma e Sociedade” é organizado pelo Departamento de Sociologia do ISCTE, com a coordenação científica de António Pedro Dores (Dept. Sociologia ISCTE), Manuel João Ramos (Dep. Antropologia ISCTE) e Jorge Santos Bessa (Dep. de Cirurgia da Faculdade Médica da UNL).
Temáticas dos painéis:
- Situações de crise humanitária, gestão e mediatização
- Previsão de risco e análise de impacto das intervenções humanitárias
- Estudos de caso: missões humanitárias recentes
- Medicina humanitária – Aspectos éticos e políticos
Espírito de Missão:
Colóquio Internacional sobre Trauma e Medicina Humanitária
PROGRAMA
Auditório Afonso de Barros
QUINTA-FEIRA, 1 Junho
9.30
Sessão de abertura – Presidente do ISCTE, Ministro da Saúde, Coordenadores do Mestrado RTS/ISCTE
10.00
– Conferência Prof. Bernard Rimé (Universidade Católica de Louvaina) – “Trauma e partilha social de emoções”
11:00 – comentário Alain Jézéquel (Braga)
11.30 Pausa para café
11.50
Painel: coordenação Dr. Bruno Brito, psicologia do trauma, GNR e Bombeiros
“Gestão psico-social do trauma – factores humanos do trauma e do socorro”
Participantes: representantes da Cruz Vermelha Portuguesa, INEM, Serviço Nacional de bombeiros e Protecção Civil, PSP, GNR, comissão Entre-os-Rios
13.00 pausa para almoço
14.30
Conferência do jornalista sénior Mark Brayne (BBC e director europeu do Dart Centre for Jornalism and Trauma) – “Jornalismo e trauma: os impactos da reportagem de guerra”
Comentário pelo Prof. José Rodrigues dos Santos (Universidade de Évora)
15.30 pausa para café
15.45
Painel: coordenação Prof. Luísa Lima (ISCTE)
“Traumas e representações colectivas”
Participantes: representantes do Ministério da Defesa, da Assembleia da República, e de embaixadas americana, espanhola, dinamarquesa, Nossa Âncora, Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos e Internacionais
Debate:
17.10 Pausa para café
17.20
Conferência “Memoriais do atentado de 11 de Março em Espanha” - Dra. Carmen Ortiz Garcia
Comentário: Prof. António Medeiros (ISCTE).
SEXTA-FEIRA, 2 Junho
Manhã:
TEMA: Espírito de Missão na Saúde
10.00
Painel: Coord Dr Pedro Moniz Pereira, Hospital Garcia De Orta – ATLS Portugal
- Uma experiência de cooperação espanhola – Dr Juan Carlos Rumbero. (cerca de 30m)
- A experiência dos “Médicos do Mundo” – (cerca de 30m)
11.15 Pausa para café
11.30
- As missões militares portuguesas – relato de uma experiência. General J Henriques. (cerca de 30m)
- Consequências da catástrofe das cheias de 2000 em Moçambique – relato de uma experiência – Professor Doutor João Luis Baptista. (cerca de 30m)
- Debate
13.00 - Pausa para almoço
Tarde:
TEMA: Da Medicina à Acção Humanitária
14.30
Painel: Coord Prof Doutor João Luis Baptista (Faculdade de Ciências Médicas)
- História do Humanitário - Prof Doutor João Luis Baptista (cerca de 10/15m).
- Emergência e Desenvolvimento – duas realidades distintas. Consequências no terreno - Drª Nídia Gonçalves, Drª Ana Glória, Drª Susana Almeida (cerca de 30/45m).
- Debate.
16. 10 – Pausa para café.
16.20 Conferência – “Os médicos e o espírito de Missão” - Professor Doutor João Lobo Antunes.
Apresentação e comentário final: Professor Doutor Jorge Santos Bessa
17.30 - Sessão de Encerramento - Presidente do ISCTE
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