1 September 2006, N°37

August 2006 Trends

Deteriorated Situations

Burundi
Tension rose in Bujumbura over government’s uncovering of alleged coup plot; former President Ndayizeye and 8 others charged. Allegations government tortured suspects and claim by 1 plotter coup conceived by authorities fueled international concern; government requested recall of UN envoy after he convened meeting of diplomats to discuss plot. Government prepared 2 laws regulating press and civil society in another perceived attempt to clamp down on dissent. Negotiations between FNL rebels and government on hold ahead of Dar es Salaam regional summit 7 September, where heads of state expected to set agenda for agreement on ceasefire. Demobilisation of non-FNL former combatants and government soldiers expanded to include officer level for first time.
“Former president’s arrest seen as part of pattern of abuse”, IRIN, 25 Aug. 2006.
“Officers in demobilisation for the first time, official says”, IRIN, 21 Aug. 2006.
“Alleged coup plotters tortured”, Human Rights Watch, 4 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°31, Elections in Burundi: A Radical Shake-Up of the Political Landscape, 25 Aug. 2005.

Iran
International Atomic Energy Agency reported Iran continued to enrich small amounts of uranium despite 31 August UN deadline for it to stop. IAEA report opens way for “appropriate measures” under UN Security Council resolution 1696 but UNSC remains divided, with U.S. in support of sanctions, Russia and China against, and UK and France calling for further dialogue. Tehran made several provocative gestures ahead of deadline, as President Ahmadinejad inaugurated new phase of Arak heavy-water reactor 26 August and long-range missile test-fired from submarine in Gulf 27 August. Earlier in month, U.S. said Tehran’s response, which offered “serious talks” but refused to suspend enrichment, to incentive package offered by UNSC P5 and Germany “fell short”. EU foreign policy chief Solana due to meet Iran’s head of national security Larijani early September.
“Bush demands action as Iran snubs UN”, The Guardian, 1 Sept. 2006.
“After starting reactor, Iran fires Gulf missile”, International Herald Tribune, 27 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°51, Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse?, 23 Feb.

Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan)
Worst incident in 50 years as Russian patrol boat reportedly shot dead Japanese fisherman near disputed Southern Kuril islands/Northern Territories. 3 other fishermen taken into Russian custody, 2 released 30 August.
“Russians free Japanese fishermen”, BBC, 30 Aug. 2006.

North Korea
Tensions continued to mount on Korean peninsula after July missile tests and speculation North aiming for nuclear test. Joint U.S.-South Korean annual military exercises started 21 August and led to North threat of “pre-emptive action”. North and South troops exchanged fire across border 1 August; no injuries reported.
“North is capable of a nuclear test, Seoul official says”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Aug. 2006.
“North Korea threatens attack due to war drills”, Reuters, 22 Aug. 2006.

Pakistan
Major Balochistan leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti, killed by security forces 26 August. Violent protests and province-wide strikes in Balochistan and Baloch majority areas of Karachi followed. Curfew imposed on Balochistan’s capital Quetta. Bugti’s killing condemned by all major political parties, including opposition Alliance for Democracy: 21 soldiers and 37 rebels also killed in operation. International attention focused on Pakistan’s failure to rein in jihadis as 22 suspects, mostly UK citizens of Pakistani origin, arrested in UK in alleged plot to blow up transatlantic flights. Pakistani intelligence agencies detained UK citizen in Punjab along with 6 nationals countrywide.
“A death Pakistan can ill afford”, Asia Times Online, 29 Aug. 2006.
“Problems for Pakistan’s president”, International Herald Tribune, 17 Aug. 2006.
“The Pakistan connection: suspicion falls on al-Qaida”, The Guardian, 12 Aug. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.

Sri Lanka
Security situation deteriorated with full-scale military clashes in eastern and northern regions. 200,000 displaced in areas of conflict and hundreds killed. Fighting engulfed predominantly Muslim town of Muttur, forcing 50,000 to flee; casualties included 17 workers of French NGO that Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) later accused security forces of “assassinating”. Air force bombing in Mullaitivy district 14 August reportedly killed dozens of young students; government claimed training camp for young LTTE rebels. Fighting broke out in northern Jaffna peninsula 11 August. In Colombo, LTTE shot dead Tamil deputy head of government peace secretariat Kethesh Loganathan, 12 August. 7 killed in explosion near residence of President Rajapakse 14 August in LTTE attack suspected to have been aimed at Pakistan’s envoy amidst enhanced defence cooperation between Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Clashes over Mavilaru waterway in east continued, despite deal that saw LTTE lift 14 day blockade. Military reported at least 100 killed in operations in northeast Sampur area from 27 August. Monitors from EU states left 1 September after having been ordered out by LTTE in response to EU listing of group as terrorists.
“Sri Lanka blamed in deaths of aid workers”, International Herald Tribune, 30 Aug. 2006.
“Sri Lanka army battles rebels in northeast”, AlertNet, 29 Aug. 2006.
“Beyond euphemism”, The Economist, 17 Aug. 2006.

Sudan
vejam em conflitos emergentes

Taiwan Strait
Both sides stepped up diplomatic war of attrition: China lured Chad to re-establish ties, and continued negotiations with 3 Taiwan allies - Guatemala, Paraguay and Sao Tome & Principe - for oil/gas exploration. Taiwan rallied support in Central America and Solomon Islands, and made 14th attempt at UN membership 10 August when several supporting states wrote to UNSG Annan requesting issue be raised in September General Assembly. Beijing called proposal attempt for Taiwanese independence.
“Gov’t to consider push for U.N. entry as ‘Taiwan’”, China Post, 29 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°42, China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente, 21 Sept. 2005.


Improved Situations

Angola
Peace deal signed with Front for the Liberation of Cabinda Enclave separatists following July ceasefire, but smaller factions refused to sign. Parliament approved amnesty deal for separatists and pledged Cabindan integration into civil service and army.
“Angola parliament approves Cabinda amnesty deal”, Mail & Guardian, 11 Aug. 2006.
"Angola signs deal with Cabindans”, BBC, 1 Aug. 2006.

Lebanon
vejam em conflitos emergentes

Togo
Government signed elections accord with opposition Union of Forces for Change, ending 12-year stalemate. EU restored aid funding, suspended since 1993, after parties agreed to hold 2007 parliamentary elections with loosened voter eligibility requirements.
“Refugees beginning returning home but many still reluctant”, IRIN, 30 Aug. 2006.
“Political agreement aims to end 12-year feud”, IRIN, 21 Aug. 2006.

Uganda
vejam em oportunidades de resolução

Unchanged Situations

Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Corsica (France), Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus , DR Congo , Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guyana, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Macedonia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal (Casamance), Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Conflict Risk Alerts

DR Congo
Situation fragile as election process continued. Results of 30 July vote released 20 August, showing regional divide and potential for further unrest: eastern provinces voted for incumbent Kabila, while contenders Bemba, Gizenga and Mobutu strongest in western districts. After no candidate received majority of votes, run-off between Kabila (44.8%) and Bemba (20.03%) scheduled to coincide with provincial elections 29 October, but Kabila pushing for earlier poll. 3-day gun battle in Kinshasa between supporters of Kabila and Bemba before presidential results announced killed 23. EU observers deemed election free and fair but called for greater transparency in vote counting. 7 election officials arrested on allegations of vote-rigging; Supreme Court to give verdict on 8 cases 5 September. 250 EU troops called in as reinforcements to patrol streets before candidates agreed truce 22 August. Parliamentary results expected 4 September. Angola moved troops to border in advance of electoral results and sent 1,700 Katangan Tigers back to country. UPC militia leader Thomas Lubanga charged by ICC with recruiting child soldiers despite calls for wider charges of murder, rape and torture.
“War crime charge for Congo rebel”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2006.
“The results come in with a bang”, The Economist, 24 Aug. 2006.
“Congolese face tense Round 2 of voting”, Christian Science Monitor, 22 Aug. 2006.

Lebanon
Fragile UN-brokered ceasefire commenced 14 August following 34 days of war between Israel and Hizbollah: approximately 1,000 Lebanese and 159 Israelis killed. Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claimed “historic victory”, while Israeli PM Olmert said ceasefire agreement eliminated Hizbollah’s “state within a state”. Amid public criticism, Israeli army chief admitted failures in logistics, operations and command. UNSC Resolution 1701, which led to ceasefire, calls for Hizbollah to move north of Litani river to allow Lebanese army and strengthened UN force (UNIFIL) of 15,000 to deploy to southern Lebanon. Slow response from EU nations over troop contributions reflected concern about UN force’s mandate and rules of engagement, particularly relating to disarmament of Hizbollah. After initial offer of only 200 additional troops (to existing 200 in UNIFIL) France announced would deploy total of 2,000; Italy pledged further 3,000. Israel said would maintain sea and air blockade until full UN force deployed. UNSG Annan embarked on 11-day tour of region to seek compliance with resolution 1701. U.S. $940 million pledged by international donors at Stockholm conference to help rebuild after what PM Sinoira called, an “unjustified war”.
“Lebanon’s uneasy truce grows more fragile”, International Herald Tribune, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Chirac offer of 2,000 troops breaks impasse on Lebanon peacekeepers”, The Guardian, 25 Aug. 2006.
“Lebanon faces new challenges”, ISN, 21 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Pakistan
vejam em deterioração das situações

Somalia
Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) further consolidated control over much of south and east, seized coastal towns north of Mogadishu and vowed to eliminate piracy. Transitional Federal Government (TFG), weakened after string of July cabinet resignations, dissolved cabinet in Ethiopian-brokered initiative 7 August and appointed smaller cabinet 2 weeks later. UIC and TFG due to meet in Khartoum for talks 1 September. U.S. and UN called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to end interference in Somalia, threatening sanctions in response to any violation of arms embargo. Ethiopian troop presence reported in Baidoa, Wajid and Galkayo but denied by Addis Ababa. UIC head Aweys rejected IGAD proposals for regional peacekeeping force.
“Somali rivals heading for talks”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2006.
“Somalia’s High Stakes Power Struggle”, Council on Foreign Relations, 7 Aug. 2006.

Sudan
Sudanese military launched strike 29 August on Darfur rebel groups not party to May Darfur Peace Agreement. Reports indicated government offensive drove back rebels from Kulkul 29 August as Khartoum continued to build military presence in North Darfur. UN Security Council voted 31 August to approve force for Darfur with some Chapter VII powers, “inviting” consent from Khartoum. Sudanese approval nonetheless considered prerequisite for deployment; President Bashir continued to reject any UN force for Darfur and Sudan refused to attend UNSC discussions on the issue prior to vote, pointing to plan for its own force of 12,000 new troops. Resolution does authorise existing UNMIS force to provide support to cash-strapped AU force already in Darfur, whose mandate currently expires end September. Minni Minnawi, leader of rebel SLA faction that signed the May peace deal and now fighting alongside government forces, appointed senior assistant to President Bashir. Chronic insecurity continued: UN official Jan Egeland called situation worst since 2004; WFP said 500,000 cut off from food aid. Relations between Khartoum and Chad improved as border opened and diplomatic ties re-established. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels led to agreement for more regional development.
“Shaky Darfur peace at risk as new fighting looms”, New York Times, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Former Darfur rebel leader named presidential assistant”, IRIN, 7 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°39, Darfur’s Fragile Peace Agreement, 20 June 2006.


Conflict Resolution Opportunity

Uganda

Government and LRA broke 4-week deadlock in Juba peace talks by signing truce 26 August. Under terms of deal, LRA have 3 weeks to assemble at designated safe zones in South Sudan, protected by SPLA, before proceeding to further talks. Stumbling blocks for further negotiations remain, including status of ICC arrest warrants, security guarantees for LRA leaders and substantial discrepancies between sides’ agendas. Government earlier refused to match 4 August ceasefire declared by LRA leader Kony, instead continuing attacks on LRA and seeking Kinshasa’s approval to attack LRA camps in northeast DRC. Reports indicated Kony might be seeking asylum in CAR.
“Daunting post-conflict challenges in the north”, IRIN, 31 Aug. 2006.
“Uganda: when international justice and internal peace are at odds”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Aug. 2006.
“Talks on hold as rebels demand cessation of hostilities”, IRIN, 10 Aug. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°35, A Strategy for Ending Northern Uganda’s Crisis, 11 Jan. 2006.