1 October 2006, N°38

Deteriorated Situations

Afghanistan
Major NATO-led offensive brought heavy fighting in southern provinces, while incidence of suicide bombings spiked. NATO claimed 1,000 Taliban fighters killed in south as part of Operation Medusa, while thousands of families displaced in Panjwayi and Zhari districts outside Kandahar. Separate major offensive, Operation Mountain Fury, launched by U.S. and local security forces in eastern provinces, where a U.S. report noted 2 to 3-fold rise in attacks in September after Pakistani deal with North Waziristan militants. Assassinations claimed prominent figures including governor of Paktia and provincial head of women’s ministry in Kandahar. President Musharraf and Karzai traded accusations about source of increasing violence, later met with President Bush in Washington: no specific agreements reached beyond possibility of cross-border jirgas. U.S. said 12,000 troops in east would be placed under NATO command; 10,000 more remain under U.S. command.
“After the fighting, a battle for hope”, The Guardian, 25 Sept. 2006.
“Afghanistan hit by wave of suicide bombings”, The Guardian, 19 Sept. 2006.
“U.S., Afghan troops launch offensive”, Washington Post, 16 Sept. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°116, Afghanistan’s New Legislature: Making Democracy Work, 15 May 2006.

Bolivia
Potential for significant unrest as President Morales’ reforms hit stumbling blocks and rifts emerged in Constituent Assembly. Santa Cruz and regional allies walked out of Assembly 1 September after Morales’ MAS party imposed simple majority instead of two-thirds vote as threshold for making changes. Further evidence of regional divide 22 September: farmers and trade unionists in Santa Cruz, angered by opposition to land reform program, blocked roads. VP Garcia raised stakes in speech to country’s peasants that included veritable call to arms in defense of “revolutionary government”. Full nationalisation of hydrocarbons industry continued to stall: minister in charge resigned after crisis in relations with Brazil prompted by granting state-owned YPFB control over 2 refineries owned by Brazilian gas giant Petrobras; new minister expected to take more conciliatory tone.
“Bolivia leaders find their promises are hard to keep”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Sept. 2006.
“Power grab”, The Economist, 7 Sept. 2006.
“Brazil tries to ease Bolivian gas dispute”, Financial Times, 21 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N°18, Bolivia’s Rocky Road to Reforms, 3 July 2006.

Chad
Fighting escalated between government and rebels in eastern Chad allied to Mahamat Nour’s FUCD. Government reportedly resumed offensive 10 September, ending lull that had prevailed since rebels expelled from N’Djamena in April. Army chief claimed 168 rebels killed in major operation 13 September around Aram Kolle; FUCD claimed hundreds of soldiers killed in same operation. UN and aid agencies expressed concern about military build-up around Abeche.
“New fronts open in eastern fighting”, AlertNet, 21 Sept. 2006.
“Govt and rebels clash in east”, IRIN, 13 Sept. 2006.

Georgia
Tensions with Russia mounted after 4 Russian military officers detained by Georgian authorities for espionage 27 September. Russia suspended ongoing troop pullout from 2 Georgian bases 30 September, recalled ambassador and most diplomatic staff, halted issuance of visas, and asked UN Security Council to censure Tbilisi. President Saakashvili accused Russia in UN General Assembly speech of annexing Georgian conflict zones and perpetuating conflicts in. NATO invited Georgia to begin “Intensified Dialogue” on membership; move criticised by Russia. In South Ossetia, 3 Ossetians and 1 Georgian killed in exchange of fire 8 September. De facto South Ossetian president Kokoity announced independence referendum and presidential elections to be held 12 November; Joint Control Commission meeting cancelled. In Abkhazia, 1 civilian reportedly killed in clash between police and gunmen. 13 opposition activists charged for alleged coup plot; opposition said arrests political. Local elections due 5 October.
“Moscow suspends Georgia troop pullout”, RFE/RL, 30 Sept. 2006.
“Georgian opposition: coup arrests are campaign tactic”, Eurasia Insight, 13 Sept. 2006.

Kyrgyzstan
Court upheld 5-year sentence of ‘For a Just Kazakhstan’ movement activist Alibek Zhumabaev for organising “mass disturbance”; opposition said trial political. In Qaraghanda, court upheld 3-year suspended prison sentence of opposition Naghiz Aq-Zhol party co-chairman Bolat Abilov.
“Kazakh court upholds verdict against opposition activist”, RFE/RL, 15 Sept. 2006.

Thailand
PM Thaksin deposed 19 September in bloodless coup. Army generals led by General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin revoked 1997 constitution and severely limited freedoms of assembly and speech. Military ‘Council for Democratic Reform’ (CDR) appointed retired general Surayud Chulanont as interim prime minister 1 October and promised to hold elections within a year, but reserved control over security affairs and right to sack PM. CDR will appoint 250-member interim legislature and 2,000-strong “people’s assembly” which in turn will select 100-200 team to draft new constitution. U.S. called coup “U-turn” for democracy and suspended $24 million in military aid. Coup may turn out to be marginally positive for southern conflict: Thaksin’s rivalry with military had been key obstacle to effective management and Gen. Sonthi more receptive to recommendations of National Reconciliation Commission. Violence continued in south with 6 bombs detonated in economic hub of Hat Yai 16 September, killing 4.
Comment by Francesca Lawe-Davies (Crisis Group), “A silver lining in Thailand’s coup?”, ABC News International, 28 Sept 2006.
“Thai coup uproots a thin democracy”, Christian Science Monitor, 21 Sept. 2006.
“Toxic Thaksin”, Foreign Affairs, 27 Sept 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°105, Thailand’s Emergency Decree: No Solution, 18 Nov. 2005; and N°98, Southern Thailand: Insurgency, Not Jihad, 18 May 2005.

Turkmenistan
Journalist and activist Ogulsapar Muradova died in prison; family reported head and neck injuries, disputing official “natural causes” verdict. Official obstruction and harassment of family condemned by international rights activists; UN expressed “grave concern”.
“Turkmenistan takes terror to new level”, Eurasia Insight, 14 Sept. 2006.
“Jailed RFE/RL journalist died in custody - rights group”, IRIN, 14 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°85, Repression and Regression in Turkmenistan: A New International Strategy, 4 Nov. 2004.

Improved Situations

Burundi
FNL rebels signed surprise ceasefire agreement with government 7 September in Dar es Salaam. Deal seen as positive, but thought doubtful will hold given unrealistic 30-day deadline for demobilisation and lack of political incentives for FNL. Few rebels adhered to provisions requiring them to assemble at specified sites, saying government must first negotiate outstanding issues such as freeing of FNL prisoners and immunity for ex-combatants. Police clashed with splinter FNL Sindayigaya faction in Bubanza province 27 September. Domestic politics remained in turmoil as second most powerful member of CNDD-FDD ruling party, second Vice-President Alice Nzomukunda, resigned 6 September, accusing party leader Hussein Rajabu of human-rights violations, lying and corruption.
“Burundi rebel delegation arrives in Bujumbura”, Reuters, 28 Sept. 2006.
“Peace is nice unless it’s phoney”, The Economist, 14 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°31, Elections in Burundi: A Radical Shake-Up of the Political Landscape, 25 Aug. 2005.

Conflict Risk Alerts

Côte d'Ivoire
Concern mounting as UN-sponsored 12-month extension of President Gbagbo’s mandate approaches expiry 31 October. Foreign diplomats monitoring peace plan proposed increasing PM Banny’s powers vis a vis Gbagbo. UN Security Council to discuss proposals 17 October, while ECOWAS and AU to suggest new poll date to UNSC. Gbagbo boycotted meeting on sidelines of UN General Assembly 20 September where AU-endorsed mediator Mbeki met rebel and opposition chiefs, regional leaders and UNSG Annan to break deadlock. Gbagbo dismissed UN peace process and vowed to present own solutions to AU Peace and Security Council. Banny government reconstituted largely intact after briefly resigning 6 September amid toxic waste scandal.
“Mbeki battles to unlock Côte d’Ivoire’s peace process”, Mail & Guardian, 27 Sept. 2006.
“Ivory Coast’s Gbagbo must go to allow peace – rebel”, AlertNet, 21 Sept. 2006.

DR Congo
Tensions rose ahead of 29 October presidential run-off vote between President Kabila and Vice-President Bemba. Third- and fourth-placed finishers in 30 July poll, Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu, pledged support for Kabila, while Bemba failed to secure alliance with influential Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS party, which boycotted first round. Following interventions by South African President Mbeki, EU foreign policy chief Solana and others, Kabila and Bemba met 13 September to discuss confinement of army and militia to barracks during electoral period. Bemba and Kabila representatives signed agreement 25 September to make Kinshasa weapons-free zone during and immediately after vote. Bemba-owned media outlets destroyed in 19 September arson attack, leading to demonstrations and mass arrests. First democratically elected parliament in 20 years inaugurated 22 September, with Kabila’s AMP alliance holding biggest share of seats (approx 300 of 500). Army head in Ituri claimed militias belonging to Front des Nationalistes et Integrationnistes rearming around Bunia. In North Kivu, dissident General Laurent Nkunda warned that deployment of troops to territory under his control would trigger violence. MONUC mandate extended by UN Security Council until 15 February 2007.
“Majority coalition in parliament backs Kabila”, IRIN, 29 Sept. 2006.
“Presidential hopefuls agree to disarm for next election”, IRIN, 25 Sept. 2006.

Somalia
Progress early in month between Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) largely negated by assassination attempt on president, UIC capture of Kismayo and Ethiopian troop deployment to Baidoa. President Yusuf survived country’s first suicide bombing 18 September, but 12 others killed, including Yusuf’s brother. UIC extended control over southern Somalia by taking Kismayo port 25 September; angry protests against Courts’ burning of Somali flag there led to shooting and death of 3. In response TFG again called for international arms embargo to be lifted to enable it to train security forces to protect its citizens. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops sighted in Baidoa in late September; believed to be in reaction to UIC capture of Kismayo, and part of continued Ethiopian effort to support TFG. Earlier in month, TFG and UIC had pledged commitment to 22 June agreement on mutual recognition, agreed in principle to unify armed groups and not seek help from foreign powers, and committed to work towards power-sharing arrangement at 30 October talks. IGAD proposal to send peacekeepers, strongly opposed by UIC, endorsed by AU 13 September.
“UIC disarms militia, tightens control over Kismayo”, IRIN, 28 Sept. 2006.
“Govt tells UN debate Islamic Courts’ actions are threatening peace negotiations”, allAfrica.com, 26 Sept. 2006.
“Ethiopian troops are in Somalia, say witnesses”, Mail & Guardian, 25 Sept. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 August 2006.