1 December 2006, N°40

Deteriorated Situations

Azerbaijan
Authorities shut down biggest independent broadcaster, ANS, and evicted an opposition party and 3 media outlets from their offices 24 November. Government opponents said move aimed at silencing dissent. Police broke up demonstration and arrested 12 activists demanding end to official pressure on media 16 November. Former senior presidential administration official Akif Muradverdiyev, arrested before November 2005 elections, sentenced to 6 years for attempt to topple gov’t, embezzlement and abuse of power.
§ “Attacks on Media Hurt Conflict Resolution”, Crisis Group media release, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “Authorities intensify pressure on independent media”, RFE/RL, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ For most recent Crisis Group report, see Europe Briefing N°40, Azerbaijan’s 2005 Elections: Lost Opportunity, 21 Nov. 2005.

Bolivia
President Evo Morales’s reforms met increased opposition, notably in Santa Cruz and eastern provinces. Despite opposition pledges to boycott discussion of agrarian reform bill, Morales’s MAS party steamrolled bill through senate, while 6 of 9 regional governors cut relations with Morales, and thousands marched 21 November in protest organised by civic groups and agro-businesses in Santa Cruz. Morales spoke of popular “revolt” and threatened disbanding of Senate to push through reforms, accusing opposition of injuring Bolivian democracy. MAS party also forced through controversial rules of procedure for Constituent Assembly after 3-month standoff, allowing constitutional changes by simple majority, although final document will require two-thirds’ vote.
§ “Bolivia enacts broad land-reform bill”, LA Times, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Evo Morales acusa a la oposición de impulsar un golpe a la democracia“, El País, 23 Nov. 2006.
§ “Morales opts for a pragmatic Bolivia”, Financial Times, 16 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N°18, Bolivia’s Rocky Road to Reforms, 3 July 2006.

Burundi
September ceasefire between government and FNL rebels held, but implementation of agreement increasingly divisive. Law granting temporary immunity for rebel signatories adopted but FNL refused to join Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism while some rebels remain political prisoners. Government set up commissions to determine those entitled to demobilisation benefits but without FNL input - contrary to agreement. South African contingent of UN peacekeepers to stay on as first part of AU deployment to avoid security vacuum after UN departure mid-December. Pressure on media increased as 3 leading journalists arrested on questionable grounds.
§ “Huge challenges in solving land crisis”, IRIN, 23 Nov. 2006.

Central African Republic
Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) rebels intent on toppling President François Bozizé took town of Birao 3 November, near border with Darfur and continued towards Bria 600 km from capital Bangui. Government later retook Birao with help of French troops attacked by UFDR. 45,000 fled fighting to refugee camps in Chad. Central African Economic and Monetary Community responded positively to request for help from Bangui and pledged support.
§ “French army clash with CAR rebels”, BBC, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Troops, raiders prey on Central African villagers”, AlertNet, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Central African Republic gets help to fight rebels”, AFP, 18 Nov. 2006.

Chad
Violence in east increased dramatically, with state of emergency declared 13 November. Gunmen killed 220 villagers in east; over 60 villages attacked in month. MSF aid worker also killed and over 3,000 IDPs reported missing following incident near Koloy 100km northeast of Goz Beida 16/17 November. Sudanese-backed rebels briefly captured key eastern town of Abeche 25 November. Government forces retook it following day, but rebels claimed to be 200km from N’djamena and closing. UN aid agencies evacuated non-essential staff and set up HQ in Cameroon after Abeche supplies looted. Security concerns prevented UN fact-finding team from visiting eastern Chad to consider options for deployment of monitoring mission or peacekeeping force.
§ “African leaders to discuss plans to end worsening Darfur, Chad conflict”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Arab civilians also targeted by militias”, Human Rights Watch, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “Villagers say Chad fighting killed at least 220: UN team”, AFP, 9 Nov. 2006.

Colombia
FARC violence escalated as series of deadly attacks continued. Mortar attack on police in Tierradentro 1 November killed at least 17, including 3 civilians. Heavy fighting with army forces reported 21 November in Caqueta killed 14. FARC militias launched series of attacks in Cali slums. President Uribe faced growing scandal as investigations grew into links between paramilitary groups and politicians allied to him. Supreme Court charged Senators Alvaro Garcia and Jairo Merlano and Congressman Eric Morris with funding right-wing paramilitaries in Sucre, and 60 current or former members of Congress and politicians under investigation for signing agreement with ex-paramilitary chiefs in 2001 to push for peace deal.
§ “Colombia’s Uribe, facing crisis, threatens ‘paras’”, AlertNet, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Thugs and politics”, Economist, 16 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Latin America Briefing N°11, Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia’s Uribe, 20 Oct. 2006.

Côte d’Ivoire
Situation potentially explosive as relations between PM Banny and President Gbagbo deteriorated. Security forces under Gbagbo control took to streets of Abidjan 28 November and demonstrations against Gbagbo’s reinstating government officials suspended over September’s deadly toxic waste scandal erupted 30 November. UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1721 1 November backing AU call to prolong transition for further 12 months. Resolution notably allows Banny to legislate independently of president and parliament, and to exert “necessary authority” over armed forces; Gbagbo refused to implement clauses contrary to constitution. Clashes between residents of Yopougon suburb and pro-government Patriot Grouping for Peace militia 3 November killed 4, while UN official briefly abducted 6 November by pro-Gbagbo militia in western town of Duekoue.
§ “Anti-Gbagbo demonstrations erupt”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Ivorian Premier vows to pursue divisive peace plan”, Reuters, 8 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°40, Côte d’Ivoire: Stepping Up the Pressure, 7 Sept. 2006.

Fiji
Coup tensions escalated as rifts between government and army deepened. Chief of armed forces Frank Bainimarama demanded resignation of PM Laisenia Qarase over controversial measures including preferential land rights for ethnic Fijians and amnesty for those implicated in 2000 coup, some of whom are ministers in current government. Government threatened to invite intervention from Pacific Island Forum nations, while Bainimarama said would begin “clean-up campaign” 1 December if demands not met. New Zealand brokered talks between Bainimarama and Qarase in Wellington 29 November in last-ditch effort to prevent military coup. Australia acting PM said would consider intervention. 1 December deadline passed peacefully but Bainimarama set new 4 December deadline as army planned military exercises around capital.
§ “Fiji coup deadline extended”, Radio NZ, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Fiji army sets new demand deadline”, Fiji Times, 22 Nov. 2006.
§ “NZ seeks meeting to scold Fiji chief”, Sydney Morning Herald, 21 Nov. 2006.

India (non-Kashmir)
Violence escalated in Assam, raising fears of new offensive by ULFA separatist rebels. Assam capital Guwahati hit by series of bombings 5 and 23 November killing 16; ULFA also suspected of train bombing in neighbouring West Bengal state 21 November that killed 12. Delhi announced deployment of 2000 extra troops to region. At least 3 killed in late month violence by “low-caste” Hindus in Maharashtra state prompted by desecration of statue of revered constitution framer B.R. Ambedkar in Kanpur.
§ “Caste protests grip Indian state”, BBC, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “India steps up security after deadly train blast”, AlertNet, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “More troops for India’s north-east”, BBC, 9 Nov. 2006.

Iraq
Sectarian violence rose to worst levels since U.S.-led 2003 invasion. 230 killed in 23 November bomb blasts in Baghdad’s Shiite Sadr City and retaliatory attacks on Sunni mosques 24 November. Spike in violence followed 14 November kidnapping raid by Shiite militia on Sunni-run Ministry of Higher Education and retaliatory attacks on Shiite-run Health Ministry. Moqtada al-Sadr’s Shiite group announced their temporary withdrawal from government in protest at PM Maliki’s meeting with U.S. President Bush in Jordan 30 November. Bush expressed support for Maliki and rejected rumours of U.S. gradual withdrawal. U.S. Defence Sec. Rumsfeld resigned following Republican defeat in mid-term elections; policy shift expected after report by bipartisan Iraq Study Group, due 6 December. Pentagon review of options reportedly favours short-term increase in troops with subsequent reduction coupled with long-term concentration on training and advising. Former President Saddam Hussein received death sentence for crimes against humanity; to appeal verdict. Agreement on restoring diplomatic ties with Syria, suspended for 20 years, announced 21 November.
§ “‘He’s the right guy’ - Bush defends embattled Maliki”, Guardian, 1 Dec. 2006.
§ “Waiting for Baker”, Economist, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “Carnage rises in Iraq as Shiites retaliate”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Nov. 2006.
§ For most recent Crisis Group report, see Middle East Report N°56, Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk, 18 July 2006.

Lebanon
Political killing and Shiite resignations increased polarisation and brought government close to collapse. Pierre Gemayel, Phalange politician and industry minister, became fifth anti-Syrian Lebanese politician to be killed in 2 years 21 November. Syria denied involvement. Mass funeral rally held 23 November and 2-day national strike 24/25 November. Ruling pro-Western March 14 coalition increasingly embattled after 6 Shiite cabinet members, including 2 Hizbollah, 3 Amal, 1 pro-Lahoud, resigned after coalition insisted on formal approval of UN tribunal on February 2005 Hariri killing. Removal of 2 more cabinet members would make two-thirds quorum impossible. Tribunal approved by cabinet 25 November but President Lahoud refused to give final approval without Shiite vote and called cabinet unconstitutional. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated intention to bring down Siniora government unless national unity formula restored. Military on alert as Nasrallah called for mass “sit-in” protest 1 December in centre of Beirut. Political crisis amplified by sporadic riots and Sunni-Shiite clashes.
§ “Lebanon troops prepare for opposition protest”, Reuters, 1 Dec. 2006.
§ “Without international support, Lebanon may go under”, Daily Star, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ “Lahoud ‘to block’ Lebanon panel”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Somalia
U.S. submitted draft UNSC resolution recommending IGAD peacekeeping force to support Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and monitor compliance with agreements reached in Khartoum, but any deployment without prior agreement by Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) widely seen as likely to generate full-scale war. CSIC fighters clashed with Ethiopian troops backing TFG in Adale and Qasah-Omane near Baidoa 19/20 November; 6 Ethiopians reported killed. CSIC claimed 30 November ambush killed 20 Ethiopian soldiers. Talks between CSIC and TFG in Khartoum collapsed 1 November, postponed to 16 December. Report by UN Monitoring Group stated 10 countries, including members of IGAD, continued to violate UN arms embargo on Somalia: UNSC unanimously voted for continuation of monitoring group 29 November.
§ “Somalia Conflict Risk Alert”, Crisis Group, 27 Nov. 2006.
§ “The rumbling rumours of war”, Economist, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ Comment by John Prendergast and Colin Thomas Jensen (Crisis Group), “Getting it wrong in Somalia, again”, Boston Globe, 29 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 Aug. 2006.

Sudan
Major fighting erupted in south between Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in first major violation of 2005 north-south peace agreement. Fighting between SAF-aligned southern militia led by Maj Gen Gabriel Tang Ginye and SPLA escalated into major clashes between SAF and SPLA in Malakal, Upper Nile state 28 November: casualties reportedly in the hundreds. Calm restored to Malakal, following high-level interventions by SAF, SPLA and UN. Deterioration of security situation in Darfur continued as hopes raised by international talks with Khartoum, then ebbed with government backing away from agreement. UK, U.S., EU, China, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Arab League met in Addis Ababa 16 November to discuss 3-phase plan. Khartoum agreed in principle to phases 1 and 2: light technical support to existing AU force, followed by heavy support including deployment of military, police and civilian personnel as well as possible aviation and logistical assets. AU and UN reported Khartoum also agreed, in principle, to “hybrid” AU/UN operation (Phase 3), pending clarification of force size. China reportedly encouraged Khartoum to accept plan. President Bashir later rejected hybrid force in preference for “African solution”, and claimed less than 9,000 have died in Darfur. SPLM called for UN force even without consent of Khartoum. U.S. and UK suggested 1 January deadline for Khartoum to consent to AU/UN hybrid plan, or face “tougher measures”. AU PSC met in Nigeria on 29 November, agreed to extend mandate of AU mission for another 6 months.
§ “Calm after heavy fighting in southern town”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
§ “UN expects plan on Darfur mission to advance”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Nov. 2006.
§ “ICC says Darfur evidence enough to prosecute”, Reuters, 23 Nov. 2006.
§ Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “So how come we haven’t stopped it?”, Washington Post, 19 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.

Tonga
Thousands rioted in capital Nuku’alofa 16 November after parliament appeared poised to recess without voting on proposals for greater democracy. Riots killed 8 and destroyed 80% of commercial district. Anti-ethnic Chinese sentiment cited by some as root of violence; 355 charged with riot-related crimes, while 200 Chinese nationals flown out of country in aftermath. Parliament voted to expand from 9 to 21 number of directly elected seats in 30-seat legislature, measure will take effect from 2008 elections. Coronation of new King postponed by 1 year. 150 Australian and New Zealand police and troops arrived 18 November at request of government; military component due to withdraw early December.
§ “Turbulence in Tonga”, EIU, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Tonga ‘should have elected MPs’“, BBC, 6 Oct. 2006.

Improved Situations

Kyrgyzstan
New constitution establishing parliamentary checks on presidential power ratified by President Bakiyev 9 November. Adoption came after tense week of opposition mass protests demanding constitutional change or Bakiyev’s resignation. PM Feliks Kulov rejected opposition calls for his resignation after the crisis. Sanjar Kadyraliyev, widely considered to control much of drug trafficking and racketeering in south, sworn into parliament 20 November.
§ “Making Kyrgyzstan’s constitutional reform stick”, IWPR, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Kyrgyz Prime Minister says he has no plans to resign”, RFE/RL, 15 Nov. 2006.

Nepal
Maoists and interim government signed historic peace deal 21 November, ending 10-year war. Maoists will join interim government, with constituent assembly elections scheduled for mid-2007. Details on arms management, sticking point of negotiations, finalised 27 November. Sides agreed to lock up weapons under UN supervision, state army will stay in barracks and armed Maoist fighters will be cantoned. Accord also contained provisions for truth and reconciliation commission but interim constitution and plans for restructuring security sector not yet agreed. Judicial commission submitted report to PM Koirala holding King Gyanendra, his ministers and security officials responsible for violent suppression of pro-democracy movement in April.
§ “Maoists sign peace deal in Nepal”, New York Times, 21 Nov. 2006.
§ “Nepal king blamed for crackdown”, BBC, 20 Nov. 2006.
§ For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°115, Nepal: From People Power to Peace?, 10 May 2006.

Senegal
President Wade met with Casamance leaders 24 November in effort to consolidate peace, announcing several measures for reconstruction including amnesty law, 60 million CFA francs in aid and rebuilding of roads.
§ “Gen Fall calls on Jammeh”, Daily Observer, 17 Nov. 2006.