1 November 2006, N°39

Deteriorated Situations

Bangladesh
Appointment of interim caretaker administration, required by constitution to rule in lead-up to January elections, marked by violent protests and uncertainty. Talks between ruling BNP and opposition Awami League failed to yield progress on Awami demands for electoral reform and neutral head of interim government. Over 20 killed in Awami-led protests in capital 28 October; BNP leaders threatened “tit-for-tat” street action. President Iajuddin Ahmed intervened, assuming head post 29 October after BNP nominee K.M. Hasan refused. Opposition continues to demand replacement of election commissioner and boycotted swearing-in, believing Ahmed partial to BNP.
“Bangladesh rivals stage rallies”, BBC, 30 Oct. 2006.
“Bangladesh poll reform deadlock”, BBC, 25 Oct. 2006.

CAR
President Francois Bozize called for international military assistance along CAR-Chad-Sudan border after 30 October attack by armed rebels he claimed based in Sudan. Rebels reportedly seized northern town of Birao, saying would push on toward capital Bangui 800km south.
"Central African Republic asks France to help repel rebels”, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.

Chad
Darfur-based Chadian rebels launched major new offensive in eastern Chad, most serious since April attack on N’djamena: took town of Goz Beida, 420 miles from capital, 22 October; heavy fighting near Sudanese border 29 October killed Chadian army chief, with both sides claiming victory. Government continued to blame Khartoum for arming rebels, while latter accused Chad of supporting rebel groups in Darfur. Sudanese militia killed at least 40 people in attacks on Chadian villages mid-October; AMIS reported 3 villages destroyed by Arab Militia suspected to be Janjaweed. Humanitarian situation deteriorated with increasingly limited access and increased refugee inflows from Darfur.
“Chad’s army chief killed in clashes with rebels”, Reuters, 29 Oct. 2006.
“Rebel push in east Chad raises fears in the capital”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Oct. 2006.

Ethiopia
Threat of regional conflict intensified as Somali Islamist forces declared jihad against Ethiopia and amassed near border in response to its military support for Somali Transitional Federal Government. PM Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war following jihad declaration. Leaked report into 2005 post-election violence confirmed government police killed 193 protesters in clashes; EU's chief election observer accused Western leaders of turning blind eye.
“Ethiopian officer captured after fierce battle, claim Islamic radicals”, International Herald Tribune, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Ethiopia says technically at war with Somali Islamists”, AlertNet, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Ethiopian protesters ‘massacred’”, BBC, 19 Oct. 2006.

Ethiopia/Eritrea
Tensions rose as Eritrea amassed reported 1,500 troops and 14 tanks in UN-monitored Temporary Security Zone, in what UN called “major breach” of 2000 peace agreement. Eritrea rejected UN Security Council call to withdraw, claiming right of troops to assist with food production and security. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopian troops in Somalia supporting Transitional Federal Government, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting rival Union of Islamic Courts.
“Eritrea masses troops at border”, Mail & Guardian, 25 Oct. 2006.
“Eritrea's proxy war jeopardizing regional stability – Meles”, Reporter, 21 Oct. 2006.
“Troops harvesting buffer zone”, IRIN, 17 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°101, Ethiopia and Eritrea: Preventing War, 22 Dec. 2005.

Fiji
Fiji Dispute between PM Qarase and military chief Bainimarama as troops seized ammunition stores in capital amid growing fears of military coup. Bainimarama opposes proposals by Qarase to grant amnesty to some involved in Fiji’s 2000 coup and threatened to force PM’s resignation. Qarase ordered ouster of Bainimarama 31 October but military officers refused to comply.
“Fiji's Qarase stands firm”, Age, 2 Nov. 2006.
“Fears grow of Fiji military coup”, BBC, 1 Nov. 2006.

Iraq
Sectarian violence and insurgent attacks escalated. U.S. forces reported highest death toll since November 2004 with 103 dead; over 300 Iraqi troops also killed while estimated 40 civilians dying every day. Government postponed national reconciliation conference, citing sectarian violence. Shiite militia loyal to radical cleric Moqtada Sadr clashed with Iraqi police in Amara, leaving at least 30 dead. Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin coalition of some Sunni insurgent groups staged unhindered demonstrations in large towns of western Iraq and announced creation of Islamic State in Sunni Arab heartland and adjacent areas; seen as largely symbolic response to Shiite federalism moves in south. Sunni and Shiite clerics agreed to statement calling for end to sectarian violence 20 October; includes preservation of Iraq's unity, protection of holy sites and release of innocent detainees. Iraqi legislators passed law 11 October establishing mechanism for creating new regions, further deepening fault lines that threaten country’s unity; law cannot be implemented for 18 months due to earlier compromise arrangement. Domestic calls for change in U.S. policy increased ahead of 7 November Congressional elections.
“Deadly attacks on police in Iraq”, BBC, 26 Oct. 2006.
Comment by Robert Malley and Peter Harling (Crisis Group), “Containing a Shiite symbol of hope”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Iraqi reconciliation effort is put on hold”, AP, 15 Oct. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°56, Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk, 18 July 2006.


Israel/Occupied Territories
Relations between Fatah and Hamas continued to deteriorate, Israeli incursions into Palestinian population centres intensified and potential for escalation on both fronts increased. Israeli low-intensity war in Gaza included incursion near town of Jabaliya 14 October and major fighting in northern Gaza 1 November. Some 280 Palestinians – approximately half civilians – and 2 Israeli soldiers killed in past four months. Violence came as Hamas delegation attended talks with Egyptian mediators in Cairo on possible prisoner exchange with Israel involving captured soldier Gilad Shalit. Meanwhile, several Hamas and Fatah activists killed in factional clashes in West Bank and Gaza. Negotiations on unity government collapsed despite Qatari and Egyptian mediation efforts. Hamas blamed Fatah for lack of progress and accused it of providing political cover for Western-imposed sanctions. Israeli cabinet voted to bring into government hawkish Beiteinu party.
“Israeli strikes kill 6 Palestinians, wound 33”, AlertNet, 1 Nov. 2006.
“Fatah preparing showdown with Hamas”, Jerusalem Post, 24 Oct. 2006.
“Gaza 'faction feuding' toll rises”, BBC, 23 Oct. 2006.
Comment by Gareth Evans and Robert Malley (Crisis Group), “Whose move in the Middle East?”, Washington Post, 14 Oct. 2006.
Crisis Group Middle East Initiative, “Towards a Comprehensive Settlement of the Arab-Israeli Conflict”, 4 Oct. 2006.

North Korea
Pyongyang launched first nuclear test 9 October, escalating fears of regional instability and forcing U.S. and other powers to confront reality of weaponised North Korea. UN Security Council passed Resolution 1718 14 October, calling on North Korea to end its nuclear program and imposing sanctions. China and South Korea demurred on full slate of sanctions, while Pyongyang said unwilling to return to talks unless U.S. withdraws financial sanctions imposed in September 2005. North agreed return to 6-party talks 31 October, due by year-end, but short-term prospects for settlement dim. World Food Programme warned of humanitarian disaster if food stocks not bolstered before winter.
North Korea will resume nuclear talks, New York Times, 1 Nov. 2006.
UN Security Council Resolution 1718, 14 Oct. 2006.
“North Koreans say they plan a nuclear test”, New York Times, 3 Oct. 2006.

Philippines
Philippines Talks between MILF rebels and government close to breakdown after Manila blamed rebel leaders for deadly blast that killed 7 in Mindanao 10 October; worst of series of 7 bombs in week. MILF denied involvement and demanded charges be dropped before continuing peace talks with government; later accused government of breaking ceasefire by strafing MILF bases. Supreme Court rejected Arroyo administration’s petition to hold referendum on adopting parliamentary system of government; administration vowed to appeal.
“Gov't seeks new deadline in talks”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 1 Nov. 2006.
“MILF rebels accuse troops of strafing positions amid truce”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 26 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°110, Philippines Terrorism: The Role of Militant Islamic Converts, 19 Dec. 2005.

Serbia
Serbia Government announced new constitution had been approved in 28-29 October referendum, but opposition and observers alleged massive irregularities. Turnout officially reported at 54.2%, with those in favour just over required threshold of 50% of electorate. Serb Radical Party re-elected leader Vojislav Seselj, currently in Hague on war crimes charges. Deputy state prosecutor Milorad Cvijovic arrested in corruption probe. Leadership continued to send hard-line messages on Kosovo: President Tadic warned Serbia had “right to defend its borders"; PM Kostunica said will consider any country recognising Kosovo independence as enemy.
Crisis Group media release, ”Serbia’s Constitutional Referendum: A Question Of Validity”, 30 Oct. 2006.
“Serbia’s new constitution gets off to rocky start”, IWPR, 18 Oct. 2006.
For most recent report, see Crisis Group Europe Briefing N°43, Southern Serbia: In Kosovo’s Shadow, 27 June 2006.


Somalia
Somalia Situation continued to deteriorate as talks between Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Khartoum appeared close to collapsing, and fighting between both sides continued in Somalia. UIC delegation said would not negotiate with TFG until Ethiopian troops withdrawn from Somalia; also opposed Kenya’s proposed chairmanship of talks. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopian troops already in Somalia supporting TFG, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting UIC. UIC reportedly recruited 3,000 Somalis for jihad against Ethiopia and continued to make territorial gains over TFG. Ethiopia denied its troops entered key town of Dinsor end September, but Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war due to UIC jihad declaration.
“Diplomats battle to save Somali talks, avert war”, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
“Somali Islamists announce start of jihad against Ethiopia”, Mail & Guardian, 23 Oct. 2006.
For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°116, Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?, 10 August 2006.

Sri Lanka
Lanka Violence between LTTE rebels and government continued to intensify amid heavy government losses. Over 1,000 reportedly killed since April. Government troops experienced setback in military offensive on Jaffna peninsula 11 October in attempt to clear rebels: over 130 troops killed and 400 wounded. LTTE suicide bombing on naval convoy in Habarana killed 100 sailors. Agreement between ruling SLFP and opposition UNP raised hopes of united stance on rebels, but LTTE-government talks in Geneva 28 October stalled over reopening of national highway that LTTE claimed necessary for getting humanitarian supplies to Jaffna. 3 days after talks ended, government bombed LTTE targets in Batticaloa.
Sri Lanka to rebels: stop attacks and we'll open road, AlertNet, 31 Oct. 2006.
“Sri Lanka sees peace talks stall”, New York Times, 30 Oct. 2006.
“War again”, Economist, 19 Oct. 2006.


Improved Situations

Haiti
In important vote of confidence in President Préval’s government, U.S. announced would ease 15-year arms embargo, allowing government to bolster police arms supply in fight against gangs. Kidnappings declined and efforts to disarm gangs moved forward despite continued clashes in slum areas.
“US eases weapons embargo on Haiti”, BBC, 11 Oct. 2006

Northern Ireland (UK)
St. Andrews talks 11-13 October resulted in timetable to ensure nomination of first and deputy first minister by 24 November and return to devolved power-sharing by March 2007. Deal rests on Sinn Fein commitments to support police and DUP pledges to share power with Sinn Fein; sides have until 10 November to respond to agreement. Earlier in month, UK Sec. State Peter Hain said IRA no longer terrorist threat as Independent Monitoring Commission reported group had ceased criminal activity.
“Governments in 'St Andrews talks'”, BBC, 24 Oct. 2006.
“IRA no longer a threat, says Hain”, Guardian, 4 Oct. 2006.


Conflict Risk Alerts

Bangladesh
DR Congo
Democratic Republic of Congo After month of high tension ahead of 29 October run-off election between incumbent Joseph Kabila and VP Jean-Pierre Bemba, voting passed off mostly peacefully, but serious concerns remain about potential for violence surrounding announcement of results: preliminary figures expected within 10 days. Situation calm in Kinshasa, but tensions remain despite presence of 1,600 EUFOR soldiers. Violence reported in Equateur province, where at least 2 died when police attacked crowd protesting alleged electoral fraud. Campaigning on both sides exploited ethnic divisions, with violent clashes between opposing supporters throughout country. Worst incident 18 October when Congolese and UN police forced to escort Bemba's campaign team through Lubumbashi, Kabila southeastern stronghold, after they were attacked by mobs. EU High Rep Javier Solana said EUFOR troops should leave when mandate expires 30 November, despite widespread concern departure could jeopardise electoral transition.
“While most of Congo counts ballots, some cities burn them”, International Herald Tribune , 30 Oct. 2006.
“The lesser of two evils”, Economist, 26 Oct. 2006.
“Landmark UNHCR convoy brings first of 25,000 home from Burundi”, UN News, 11 Oct. 2006.

Fiji
Somalia